Trump's Tax Returns Won't Be the Nail in His Political Coffin

The long-awaited release of former President Donald Trump's tax returns arrived just before the new year, but the sought-after information may not devastate Trump and his 2024 bid.

On Friday, House Democrats succeeded in a years-long battle with Trump and released his tax returns from 2015 to 2020—records he refused to release during his time as a presidential candidate and as president.

Much of the information had been brought to light by the two reports released by the House Ways and Means Committee, including the fact that the Internal Revenue Service failed to audit Trump during the first two years of his presidency. It wasn't until after Democratic lawmakers began oversight proceedings in 2019 that the IRS began the process.

Although the data raises questions about Trump's transparency and accountability when it comes to his wealth, experts say the release of records may not be as politically damaging as his opponents want it to be.

Political strategist Jay Oliver told Newsweek that while the newly-released tax information seems "catastrophic" and comparable to "a ball dropping on New Year's Eve" in reality, it's not as consequential "if you are Donald Trump."

Citing Trump's access to a team of countless lawyers and his usual tendency to aggressively rail against efforts aimed a hurting his image, Oliver said the tax records "will not damper the hopes of another four years at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue."

"He's skirted other issues, and there's no doubt he will delay the inevitable here," he said.

The former president has already sent a stark warning to the Democrats for publicizing his tax returns, saying that doing so would "lead to horrible things for so many people."

"The radical, left Democrats have weaponized everything, but remember, that is a dangerous two-way street!" Trump said in a Friday statement.

Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek that Friday's release may even help Trump. Without proposed legislation from the congressional committee that argued it needed Trump's records for legislative purposes, the move from the Democrats "looks petty and political."

"The release of these tax forms is likely to be a mistake," Patton said. "It will feed into his political persecution narrative and Trump will keep on keeping on."

Trump's reputation is also likely to go unscathed because his core supporters haven't seemed to care about the other tax cases against Trump.

For example, even though Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg successfully prosecuted the Trump Organization for tax fraud earlier this month, Trump's supporters remained unswayed, according to former federal prosecutor and elected state attorney Michael McAuliffe.

"The damage to his reputation is almost irrelevant," McAuliffe previously told Newsweek.

Patton added, "The conviction of the Trump companies didn't phase him...so why should [the tax returns]?"

Although Trump may escape political devastation, it is possible there is a bombshell that stems from the thousands of pages of records released Friday.

Caroline Bruckner, a tax professor at American University, told Newsweek that because the returns don't offer a full picture, "There's far more to the story than what these returns show."

She said the returns do raise a series of "red flags" and emphasizes the public need for presidential candidates to release their returns as part of their required campaign disclosures.