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GOP pollster Frank Luntz predicted Saturday that former President Donald Trump's attacks targeting fellow Republicans "will come back to bite him," particularly as investigations and other controversies continue to pile up.
Some analysts have suggested that Trump's grip on control of the Republican Party is waning, particularly as the former president has seen some high profile primary defeats, and the House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol has held public hearings featuring what many view as damning testimony. Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly weighing a 2024 presidential campaign announcement—potentially even before the midterm election in November.
"Trump never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity," Luntz told The Guardian for an article published Saturday. "He has the chance to participate in an amazing, historic Republican resurgence, and instead he's making everything all about him. That could cost Republicans the majorities."
Top Republicans have reportedly urged Trump not to announce anything before the midterms, worrying it will distract from their messaging against President Joe Biden and Democratic leadership in Congress. Many in the GOP see a clear strategy to attack Democrats on inflation, high gas prices, and other cultural issues, as Democrats hope to make the election about a choice between Trump and their continued leadership.
Luntz told The Guardian that GOP leaders have told the former president "in no uncertain terms that anything that takes attention away from inflation and Biden's failures could hand the election to the Democrats. But they know there is nothing they can do to influence him, and that he doesn't really care."
Meanwhile, some Republicans hope that the party can distance itself from Trump moving forward. Luntz suggested the former president's willingness to criticize and attack members of his own party could be a liability for his own future goals.
"No one attacks Republicans more viciously than Donald Trump, not even top Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer," he said. "Eventually that will come back to bite him."
Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Center on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek earlier this month that behind the scenes, many Republicans are sure to be "irked" if Trump announces an early bid for the White House.
"The GOP wants the midterms to be a referendum on one word: inflation. With price levels soaring to their highest levels in 40 years, gas hitting $7 a gallon in some cities, and most Americans believing the country is headed on the wrong track, Republicans can coast to big wins in November," Gift said.
What Recent Polls Show
Most recent polls show Trump favored to beat Biden if the two were to face off again in a 2024 matchup, although the results are generally close. The current Real Clear Politics average, which includes polling from June 28 to July 7, shows the former president about 1.7 points ahead of the current president. On average, Trump receives support from 42.7 percent of registered voters compared to 41 percent who back Biden.
Meanwhile, the most recent poll carried out by The New York Times/Siena College from July 5 to 7 shows Biden ahead by 3 points. That survey puts the Democratic president at 44 percent and the former GOP president at 41 percent. It included 849 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.
Although some Democrats have speculated or suggested that Biden, 79, should not seek another term due to his age and low approval rating, he has asserted his intention to run again. Trump has repeatedly teased the possibility of another 2024 run, but has not yet publicly confirmed his political plans.
About the writer
Jason Lemon is a Senior Politics Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused ... Read more