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Embroiled in a number of state and federal investigations and lawsuits, former President Donald Trump has endured a tumultuous couple of months. But the ongoing legal developments and constant string of headlines haven't appeared to weaken his influence over Republican voters.
A BBC analysis conducted this week found that in the lead-up to November's midterm election, primary GOP candidates endorsed by Trump have won 92 percent of the time.
This election cycle, the former president has weighed in on almost 200 races across the nation—the highest number of candidates he's endorsed than any other year.
While the majority of his endorsements have been for incumbents, a number of Trump-backed challengers have also beat out candidates who have drawn the former president's ire over their criticisms of him.
Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in January 2021, only two won their primaries this year. Four have retired while the other four—including Representative Liz Cheney, who is arguably Trump's fiercest Republican critic—lost to Trump's candidates in their primary races.
Asked about his stellar endorsement record on Thursday, Trump told host Hugh Hewitt in an interview that his wins have been even "higher" than the 92 percent reported by the BBC.
"I'm not going to get overly upset with the 92 percent, but the number's higher," the former president said.
"And I endorsed JD Vance, as an example, and he's done great. He's really doing good," Trump added. "Herschel's doing good. I think Dr. Oz is doing good, but Fetterman is totally cratering, I think. I mean if he doesn't crater, nobody will. If Fetterman makes it, anybody can make it."
In a number of key battleground states—Ohio, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—Trump has made a number of Senate GOP endorsements, backing JD Vance, Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz against Democrats Tim Ryan, Raphael Warnock and John Fetterman respectively.
However, while all of his endorsed candidates won their Republican primaries, their Democratic counterparts have mounted a real challenge, polling neck-and-neck against Trump's picks. Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has expressed skepticism over his party's chances of capturing the upper chamber of Congress, saying that "candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."
Yet if Trump's record remains undiminished amid his recent legal battles, historical analyses suggest that the former president will win largely this November.
Data reviewed by Axios shows that Trump's endorsements have been increasingly successful since he took office. In 2017, 57 percent of his endorsements won their elections. By 2020, that number had risen to 77 percent, and last year the figure went up to 80 percent—meaning only one in five candidates endorsed by Trump lost.
While it remains to be seen whether Trump remains the Republican Party's kingmaker, the former president's ratings appear to remain strong despite the various investigations into his involvement in the Capitol riot, alleged election interference in Georgia, and the probe related to August's FBI raid.
A poll released by PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist last week found that 61 percent of Republicans would want Trump to run again in 2024 even if was indicted.
About the writer
Katherine Fung is a Newsweek senior reporter based in New York City. She has covered U.S. politics and culture extensively. ... Read more