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A spate of recent polling depicts former President Donald Trump as increasingly vulnerable in his pursuit of the Republican Party's nomination for the presidency in 2024 as new controversies—and a series of high-profile lawsuits—have continued to mount against him.
While he has not yet declared his intention to run, a Tuesday poll from USA Today and Suffolk University showed Trump trailing his chief potential challenger—Florida Governor Ron DeSantis—in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup among likely Republican voters by 23 points, one of the highest margins yet-reported.
Roughly a week earlier, another poll between Yahoo News and online pollster YouGov poll found approximately 47 percent of registered Republican or Republican-leaning independents saying they would vote for DeSantis today in a hypothetical primary, giving him a five-point advantage over the 76-year-old real estate tycoon in a hypothetical primary.
And in moderate states like Utah, Trump finds himself highly unpopular among grassroots voters across the spectrum: in a recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, Trump finished in third place in a wide field of potential 2024 GOP presidential candidates. He even finished behind outgoing Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney, the leader of the conservative resistance against him who has barely registered in national polling.
The main takeaway: Republicans—particularly independents—simply want something new, even as polls show his popularity remains quite high among his party's loyalists.
"Trump has become less popular with independent voters," Craig Agranoff, a Florida-based political strategist, told Newsweek. "What might have worked for him in 2016 will probably not work in the upcoming election. People wanted something different back in 2016, they wanted change, but he won't check those boxes for them in 2024."
For many, the person who does is DeSantis, who has experienced a remarkably rapid swing in approval in recent months.
As DeSantis has been elevated by in-state and national press as a strongarmed warrior at the forefront of America's culture war—and has been rewarded with historically unprecedented popular support in his home state—Trump's once-sterling brand of populist rage has been tarnished in the conservative press following an underwhelming 2022 midterm election season in which many of the candidates who touted his false claims of a stolen election two years earlier faltered in their campaigns against vulnerable Democrats.
Meanwhile numerous lawsuits—and Trump's recent embrace of antisemitic figures like white nationalist Nick Fuentes and rapper Kanye West—have had a noticeably detrimental impact on his influence not only with independents but within his own party.
Early numbers appear to indicate that the country has moved on as well. Last week's Yahoo News/YouGov poll notably showed a 14-percentage point swing toward DeSantis since its last in mid-October, when Trump maintained a nine-point lead over DeSantis.
Meanwhile, in general election environments, where Trump and the similarly unpopular incumbent, Democrat Joe Biden, are in a polling deadlock in USA Today's polling, DeSantis is a clear favorite, apparently demonstrating a level of crossover appeal Trump—today—does not have.
What Trump does have working in his favor, however, is a highly loyal base that will support him no matter who enters the race. The same morning of USA Today's poll, the Morning Consult released data showing Trump with firm command over a crowded field of possible Republican challengers as prospects like Cheney, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence divided party moderates.
"Although some might defect, it is important to note that people forget that Trump brought a lot of voters to the Republican Party," said Agranoff. "There is very little evidence that anyone can maintain that in the absence of Trump. Part of the baggage of Trump is what brought the Republicans out. Non-traditional voters who are left out of the polls showed up, which caused the polls to be wrong. He might not get all the Trump voters as their loyalty might not transfer to DeSantis. People forget that."
About the writer
Nick Reynolds is a senior politics reporter at Newsweek. A native of Central New York, he previously worked as a ... Read more