Turkey Heads to the Polls in Decisive Day for Putin and the West

Turkey heads to the polls on Sunday in what could be the biggest challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's 20-year rule and one of the the most consequential elections in Turkey's modern history.

Polls show Erdoğan, 69, is trailing his main opposition contender, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the 74-year-old leader of the center-left, pro-secular Republican People's Party (CHP). If neither candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the presidential race will be determined in a run-off on May 28.

The election in the NATO member country are being watched closely as a test of a united oppositions' ability to oust a leader who has concentrated almost all powers of the state in his hands. A new five-year term for Erdoğan would be a boon to his close ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is continuing a war in Ukraine that has been condemned by NATO and the West.

Turkey has long acted in a mediator role between Kyiv and Mosow—with experts saying that Turkish policies towards Russia would likely remain the same if Kılıçdaroğlu wins.

However, Kılıçdaroğlu, who has called for a more democratic path for Turkey, earlier this week accused a Russian group of spreading conspiracies and "deep fake content" about the election. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the Kremlin had been involved in any election meddling.

The outcome of the elections could also have an impact on the United States' relationship with Turkey. Erdoğan has accused the opposition of working with President Joe Biden to topple him, and said they would bow down to the wishes of Western nations if elected.

"Biden gave the order to topple Erdoğan, I know this. All my people know this," Erdoğan said at a rally on Saturday, Reuters reported. "If that is the case, then the ballots tomorrow will give a response to Biden too."

A U.S. State Department spokesperson told Reuters that Turkey was a long-standing U.S. ally and Washington would be following the election closely, but added that the U.S. "does not take sides in elections."

Ünal Çeviköz, Kılıçdaroğlu's top foreign policy aide, has previously told Newsweek that he wants to repair relations with the West, and that the opposition block is committed to improved "coordination and cooperation with the U.S."

The election outcome could also pave the way for Sweden to gain admittance to NATO. Sweden's bid to join the military alliance, which Putin opposes, remains stalled by opposition from Turkey and Hungary.

Çeviköz also previously told Newsweek that he is hopeful that a new Turkish parliament will approve Sweden's bid.

Meanwhile, voters on Sunday will also elect a new parliament—according to Reuters, likely to be a tight contest between the People's Alliance that includes Erdoğan's conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), and Kılıçdaroğlu's Nation Alliance formed of six opposition parties.

The elections come as Turkey is grappling with economic turmoil that critics have blamed on the government's mishandling of the economy.

The country is also reeling from a powerful earthquake in February that flattened thousands of buildings and killed more than 50,000 people. Erdoğan's government has been criticized for its response to the disaster and the lax policing of building codes that worsened the devastation.