Ukraine Blocks Russia From 'Significant Gains' as New Offensive Begins: ISW

Russia has "regained the initiative" by launching a new offensive in the Ukraine war, despite being blocked from making "significant gains," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

An ISW assessment published on Wednesday says that Moscow has started its "next major offensive" in Luhansk, a region of Ukraine that is already largely controlled by Russian forces. The report notes that "operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line" in western Luhansk have accelerated over the past week, leading to "marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk" border.

"The commitment of significant elements of at least three major Russian divisions to offensive operations in this sector indicates the Russian offensive has begun," the report says. "Even if Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains."

The U.S.-based think tank said that "Russian forces are setting the terms of battle" in the war for the first time since Ukraine took the initiative in August, while cautioning that a Russian victory "is not inherent or predetermined" and could lead to a new Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"The full commitment of these forces could lead to their eventual culmination along the Svatove-Kreminna line without achieving their objectives of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk," says the report. "That culmination would likely provide a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to exploit with their own counteroffensive."

Russia reportedly also made some "marginal advances" in Ukraine's Donetsk region, including a series of "tactical advances" that were made in a ground assault near Bakhmut.

Last week, ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had set a March deadline for troops to capture all of Luhansk and Donetsk, two of the four Ukrainian regions that he claimed to have annexed for Russia last year.

However, the think tank said at the time that there was no evidence Russia had "sufficient combat power" to achieve Putin's goals by the deadline, while suggesting that Ukraine would exploit any failure with "their own late spring or summer 2023 counteroffensive after incorporating Western tank deliveries."

While the new Russian offensive does represent a potential turning point in the war, ISW said on Wednesday that Moscow officials were also continuing "to prepare Russia's military industry for a protracted war in Ukraine."

Meanwhile, Russian mercenary organization the Wagner Group was reportedly being aided by Kremlin intelligence officials in efforts to use "coercive tactics" to revive a failing campaign to recruit prisoners for the Ukraine war effort.

ISW cited Russian media reports claiming that "representatives and Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Federal Security Service" were threatening prisoners inside Russia with "new criminal cases if they refuse to volunteer with the Wagner Group."

"The Wagner Group will likely continue these more coercive practices as it seeks to replenish its forces in Ukraine with more convict recruits following months of highly attritional human wave attacks in eastern Ukraine," says the report.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian and Ukrainian ministries of defense.