Ukraine Ceasefire Would Be 'Desperately' Needed Win for Putin: ISW

As Ukrainian forces make significant gains in the Kherson Oblast, a United States think tank is warning that a ceasefire could be beneficial for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Institute for the Study of War released its latest assessment of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine. In the report, the ISW said a ceasefire would give Russia "the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute" its troops.

"A wintertime ceasefire would only benefit Russian forces, who would use that opportunity to bolster their faltering defenses and continue their genocidal campaign to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied parts of Ukraine," the ISW said.

It comes as Ukrainian officials move to liberate the city from Russian occupation as part of its months-long counteroffensive effort.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's intelligence directorate, told the Associated Press that "an operation to liberate Kherson" and surrounding areas is underway Friday. Russia still controls much of the Kherson region.

According to the Agence France-Presse news agency, more than 30,000 Russian troops have withdrawn from the southern Kherson region.

Last month, congressional Progressives walked back on a letter calling for a diplomatic end to Russian-Ukrainian tensions. The letter to President Joe Biden urged the U.S. to continue supporting Kyiv with military assistance and weapons while also making a "proactive diplomatic push" to arrange a ceasefire.

The letter received significant backlash for seemingly wanting the U.S. to end its military and economic assistance to Ukraine. Experts also said Russia would never agree to fair negotiations that allow for an independent Ukraine.

The ISW said the latest victory in Kherson "will not be Ukraine's last."

Ukraine has successfully pushed back Russian forces for months as the war heads into winter. The ISW said the colder months could disproportionately harm the "poorly-equipped" Russian forces.

"Well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months," the think tank wrote.

If fighting does halt this winter, the ISW said it will be due to "logistical challenges" and the "culmination of several campaigns" on both sides.

Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat expects the Kremlin will further reduce the pace of their attacks on infrastructure this winter, according to the ISW. This will allow Ukraine authorities to address the most serious damage.

The institute has assessed that Russia's arsenal of high-precision weapons systems has been greatly depleted, making it difficult for them to keep up with these attacks.

While Russia may likely retain the capability to damage Ukraine's critical infrastructure and impose costs on civilians in winter, the ISW said Russia is "unlikely" to be able to inflict "decisive and lasting" damage.

Meanwhile, it added that Russia is quickly trying to train about 120,000 new conscripts to deploy to the frontlines by the spring.

Ukraine forces will likely aim to liberate as many occupied territories as possible before the arrival of Russian reinforcements on the battlefield.