Ukraine Maps Show State of Counteroffensive Amid Robotyne Advances

Ukrainian forces are continuing to make small advances on the southern sector of the front, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) whose latest maps detail some of Kyiv's war progress.

Ukraine's counteroffensive aimed at recapturing Russian-occupied territory started around June 4 and Kyiv has said it has liberated more than a dozen villages in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts.

The think tank reported on Sunday that geolocated footage had shown how Kyiv's forces had advanced east of Novoprokopivka, a village about four miles south of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun has said that Ukrainian forces continue to advance near Robotyne, which Ukraine recaptured last month, and had liberated 0.6 square miles of territory in this direction.

A map by the ISW showing the state of play around Robotyne illustrates how Ukrainian forces have advanced south of the town and advances west of Verbove, a town tipped to be next in Kyiv's sights.

The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Ilya Yevlash, quoted by ISW, said Kyiv had also achieved unspecified success near Klishchiivka, six miles south of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast.

Another of the latest ISW maps shows that Ukrainian forces had advanced northwest of Klishchiivka. It also said Russian forces now exerted less control over Andrivka, around 30 miles to its northwest. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email for comment.

It comes as chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told the BBC on Sunday that Kyiv likely has about 30 to 45 days left for the counteroffensive before the weather worsens.

However, the day before, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told Reuters that Ukraine planned to continue the counteroffensive "one way or another," regardless of "the cold, wet, and mud."

Michael Kofman, a military analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the War on the Rocks podcast on September 8 that Western expectations have shifted about Ukraine's counteroffensive, which in August had been "very pessimistic" due to its relatively slow progress.

"It is clear that the Ukrainian approach has achieved some results," Kofman said, although he believed that the Russian military "does not appear to be pressured enough to be towards collapse."

Regarding the counteroffensive's time frame, Kofman said "the primary constraining elements are going to be remaining combat strength and munitions" as well as weather.

"Who is going to declare the offensive is over or who is going to assess its results?" Kofman said, suggesting that the Ukrainian military might not declare a stopping point for the push. "They may say that operations are continuing into the winter."

"It's too soon to call, these weeks are going to be relatively decisive in terms of outcomes," he added.