Ukraine Counteroffensive Needs Three Things to Be Successful

Ukraine's armed forces need not just Western equipment, but also the training and military doctrines that come with it in order to succeed in their long-anticipated counteroffensive, experts have told Newsweek.

Ukrainian officials and Western analysts have extensively predicted a concerted push back against Moscow's forces by Kyiv's troops this spring—something that Russia said it had noted and was preparing for. But Ukrainian officials have called both for more aid from Kyiv's Western backers and for silence around its military plans.

Russian officials and influential figures are showing "a pervasive anxiety over potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions," the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said on Wednesday.

Kyiv's fighters are targeting Russian logistics spots in the east of Kherson, the think tank added, noting that a spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command said on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces were "quietly" carrying out counteroffensive operations. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russian mercenary Wagner Group, said earlier this week a counteroffensive was "inevitable."

Western supporters of Ukraine have poured military aid into the country ahead of the touted counteroffensive. German-made advanced Leopard tanks have rolled into Ukraine, and the Pentagon said earlier this month it would speed up its delivery of 31 promised M1 Abrams tanks.

"This is about getting this important combat capability into the hands of the Ukrainians sooner rather than later," Pentagon press secretary, Brigadier General Pat Ryder, told the media.

"The next 30 to 60 days of the campaign will be critical," retired U.S. Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie, told Newsweek this week.

'Important Combat Capability'

But although the equipment—along with the upgraded capabilities it offers—is important, training is crucial to the counteroffensive's success, experts say.

"You can survive on a lot less equipment if you actually know what you're doing," Glen Grant, former British Army officer, now based with the Baltic Security Foundation in Riga, Latvia. Each of the donated tanks are different, with contrasting characteristics, he told Newsweek, but "to actually to break through, they're going to need to put them together and to fight as concentrated groups" with the rest of Ukraine's capabilities.

Ukraine may have invested additional time in preparation, training and planning in order to give its counteroffensive the best chance of success, David Dunn, professor of political science at Birmingham University, U.K., said.

"Ukraine has one go at this, and it's hugely important that it's as successful as possible," both militarily and politically, Dunn told Newsweek.

At the end of March, the U.K. government said Ukrainian tank personnel had completed their training on the British Challenger 2 main battle tanks in the U.K., with Ukrainian soldiers training on the Leopards across Europe.

On April 21, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a briefing at the Ramstein airbase in Germany that Washington has "expedited our M1 Abrams timelines to supply Ukraine with more armored capability in the coming months, and the M1s that the Ukrainians will use for training will arrive here in Germany in the next few weeks."

Speaking on the same day, General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said around 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers were in Germany for training, with 8,800 more fighters having already returned to Ukraine.

New Military Doctrines

What comes now, after the training programs and equipment deliveries, is a "bit of a gamble," Grant said. It is not known whether Ukrainian forces have rehearsed coordinated attacks, but "we will only see when that counterattack comes, whether they are coordinated and smooth," he added. Soldiers will learn as they go, he said, which could mean that fighting in and around the contested eastern city of Bakhmut buys Ukraine extra training time for the counteroffensive.

Yet another key part of the training is not merely learning to control or use unfamiliar equipment, but to implement new military doctrines, experts add. Ukrainian operators may well have taken on board NATO military doctrines to replace Soviet-era tactics Kyiv's armed forces have been using, Grant said, which would make the "mental mechanics" all the more important.

Longer-Range Capabilities

But beyond the tanks and training of its various forms, Ukraine still needs artillery for this counteroffensive, experts say. Ukraine has repeatedly asked for long-range weapons, which would "allow Ukraine's military to disrupt Russia's supply chains and logistics," Grant said. These longer-range capabilities mean Kyiv's fighters would be able to "create a coordinated attack" rather than carry out more limited strikes, he added.

The U.S. has furnished Ukraine with artillery such as HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. As of April 19, the U.S. has provided 38 HIMARS to Ukraine. Washington has also provided Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs) with an extended range, although it has refused to provide ATACMS, or Army Tactical Missile Systems, with a range of around 186 miles.

The U.S. has resisted sending controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine, which could also be useful in Ukraine's counteroffensive, Dunn said. However, Ukraine has made notable use of air defense, which has been key for denying Russia full use of its airpower capabilities on the battlefield, he said.

Ultimately, Ukraine is likely to "attack on a variety of fronts" to keep Russian forces on their toes, Dunn said. "The element of surprise is an important part of warfare," and Kyiv's fighters should "play to their strengths," he added.

Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment via email.