What Next for Crimea as Ukraine Targets Zaporizhzhia Land Corridor?

Ukraine is unlikely to launch full-scale operations on Crimea as its forces grind away in the contested south of the country, according to experts, after the country teased its ability to slip past Russian control of the annexed peninsula.

Ukraine doesn't have the resources to launch a fully-fledged assault on Crimea as it pushes on through Zaporizhzhia, one analyst said, although Kyiv's grasp of almost "real-time" information from the peninsula is a "huge achievement," a former Ukrainian security service (SBU) officer told Newsweek. But this does not mean there's not more to come from Ukraine's military on the Russian-annexed territory to the south of mainland Ukraine.

Ukraine, now in the fourth month of its counteroffensive, said over the weekend that Kyiv's fighters had broken through Russia's first line of defenses along the southern frontline in the western part of Zaporizhzhia. On Saturday, the commander of Ukraine's Tavria group of forces, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, told British newspaper The Observer that Ukrainian forces "are now between the first and second defensive lines" around the village of Robotyne, which Ukraine said it had captured in late August.

Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Robotyne and northwest of the nearby village of Verbove, and are likely progressing along Russia's fortifications en route, the Institute for the Study of War think tank said on Tuesday.

But in a dramatic raid marking Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, Kyiv's military intelligence agency (GUR) said its fighters, along with Ukrainian navy soldiers, had landed on Crimea's shores. The Ukrainian troops approached the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak in western Crimea on waterborne vessels, the agency said in a statement.

Footage published by the GUR appears to show a Ukrainian soldier draping the country's yellow and blue flag on some form of structure in Crimea. Although not a full-scale push, the brief raid nonetheless showed "that Ukraine is apparently able to land troops in Crimea despite Russia's supposed naval control of the area," military expert David Hambling told Newsweek at the time.

As it stands, Ukraine cannot hope to launch an amphibious operation large enough to invade the peninsula with its own forces, according to Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst with the Hague Center for Security Studies.

Kyiv does not have "the ships and aircraft it needs to acquire the necessary sea control or the amphibious capability it would need to transport the needed ground troops," Mertens told Newsweek.

Ukraine is likely to use its special forces, such as the GUR and the SBU, to launch more amphibious reconnaissance and saboteur missions, former SBU employee Ivan Stupak told Newsweek.

Russia has controlled Crimea since its illegal annexation of the territory in 2014, and Kyiv has repeatedly vowed to retake the peninsula from Moscow. Analysts have warned losing Crimea would be a red line for Russian President Vladimir Putin, hitting closer to home than the Kremlin's forces losing control over eastern mainland Ukraine would.

But with the focus on hotspots of fighting like the Donetsk town of Klishchiivka, the Luhansk city of Lysychansk, and south of the Ukrainian-controlled Zaporizhzhia city of Orikhiv, there are several ways for Ukraine to approach operations in the Black Sea at this point in the war effort.

Ukraine possibly hopes to stem Russia's supply chain through Crimea to Zaporizhzhia, Mertens said. Crimea is a key supply route for Russian troops fending off Ukraine's push to the occupied city of Melitopol, and ultimately down to the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has continued to target the connections between the peninsula and mainland Ukraine.

Operations in and around Crimea could also have the added benefit for Ukraine of forcing Russians to redirect troops to the peninsula "that they could dearly use elsewhere," Mertens said. This is what the marine raids are particularly useful for, he noted.

If Russia then needs to juggle Ukrainian raids and re-allocate assets to defend Crimea, "this can add up pretty quickly, as the raiders will have the initiative and can choose where and when to attack, while as a defender you must be strong enough always and everywhere," Mertens said.

Ukraine is likely hoping to wear down Russia's ground-based air defense and coastal missile batteries while at once staving off Russia's attacks on its airbases, Mertens said.

"This creates both the conditions for further offensive operations and influences the development of the operations in the Black Sea," according to the analyst.

Ahead of announcing its amphibious raid, Ukraine's military intelligence agency said it had destroyed a Russian S-400 air defense system at Cape Tarkhankut in west Crimea.

"This is a painful blow to the air defense system of the occupiers," the military intelligence agency added.