How Many F-16s Does Ukraine Need To Win The War? Not as Many as You Think

Ukraine may only need a few dozen U.S.-made F-16 jets, matched with enough trained pilots to operate them, to make a decisive difference in the air war over the war-torn country, experts have told Newsweek.

Ukraine has long called for Western-made fighter jets, which would be an upgrade from its Soviet-era arsenal of aircraft such as MiG-29s and Su-27s. Several nations, such as Poland and Slovakia, have donated a handful of MiG-29s to Ukraine, but experts have called this a boost to Ukraine's air capabilities, rather than a game changer.

No country has yet made the leap to provide the single-engine, multi-role F-16s, which analysts say are the most likely choice of aircraft over other options, such as the Swedish Gripen or the French Rafale. F-16s are used by many Western air forces, which is one reason experts say it is a better bet than other comparable fighter jets.

However, there are increasing signs that Kyiv is moving closer to its goal as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky doubles down on his requests for a "coalition of fighter jets."

In January, Kyiv said it would need around 200 F-16s to protect its skies. Yet Ukraine likely does not need as many as they have asked for to bolster its air power in a meaningful way, experts have suggested.

"Given the disparity between current aircraft fleets, any F-16s will make a difference," according to retired Air Commodore Andrew Curtis. "However, to be decisive, the Ukrainians would need dozens of competently operated F-16s," the former senior British Royal Air Force officer told Newsweek, adding this appeared an unlikely prospect this year.

Although calculations hinge on just how many trained Ukrainian pilots can take to the skies, even between 24 and 30 F-16s would "make a notable difference to Ukrainian capabilities," David Jordan, co-director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King's College London told Newsweek.

Two dozen air frames "might not win them the air war," Jordan added, but they would give Kyiv the edge over Russian forces if Moscow's air crews "display lower levels of skill in terms of flying, fighting and planning."

Ukraine is likely to need up to 100 F-16s, but "certainly upwards of 60 to start with," former British Royal Air Force Senior Commander and Air Marshal Greg Bagwell told Newsweek.

However, Kyiv's air force would need more aircraft than it can actively fly at one time, experts stress. The fighter jets cannot work continuously without maintenance, and the use Ukraine can make of F-16s crucially depends on how many pilots are available and the level of training they have received.

Ukrainian pilots may be able to fly F-16s within a few months, former British military officer Frank Ledwidge told Newsweek, but it will take far longer for Kyiv's military to maximize the impact any new, Western platforms can have.

The White House indicated it would not block the export of F-16s by European countries supporting Ukraine, CNN reported Friday. U.S. President Joe Biden then confirmed during the G7 summit in Hiroshima that Washington was "launching some new joint efforts with our partners to train Ukrainian pilots on a fourth-generation fighter aircraft like the F-16."

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Dutch leader Mark Rutte have agreed to "build an international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capabilities, supporting with everything from training to procuring F-16 jets," a Downing Street spokesperson said earlier in May.

On Saturday, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that as the training takes place "in the coming months, we will work with our allies to determine when planes will be delivered, who will be delivering them, and how many."

Reports emerging Tuesday, citing the European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said "the training of the pilots for the F-16 has started in several countries," including Poland. Newsweek has contacted the Polish Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Should Kyiv receive U.S.-made jets, they are "unlikely to risk F-16s in offensive counter air, or strike operations, at least in the first instance," Curtis said. They may be used to bolster Ukraine's existing surface-to-air missile capabilities, he added, and protect the country's essential infrastructure from targeted strikes.

There are several versions of the F-16, and Ukraine would likely receive an older model, experts say. But this may nonetheless come with longer-range, more advanced weaponry, Bagwell previously suggested, which Jordan said could include AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles or AGM-88 HARM air-to-surface anti-radiation missiles.

There may be a re-evaluation of just how many F-16s Ukraine could receive once initial tranches have been delivered, Bagwell added.

Experts say that the provision of F-16s would mark a more permanent commitment to equipping Ukraine's armed forces than previous military aid packages.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko hit back at the possibility of Ukraine receiving F-16s on Saturday, saying this would carry "enormous risks" for Western countries involved, according to Russian state media.

Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry for comment via email.