Why Finland's NATO Membership Doesn't Help Ukraine

Ukraine's chances of becoming a NATO member in the short-term are not helped by Finland joining the alliance, according to experts.

On Tuesday, Finland became the 31st member of NATO, with Sweden expected to shortly follow suit.

"I am deeply proud to welcome Finland as a full-fledged member of our alliance and I look forward to also welcoming Sweden as soon as possible," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

Helsinki applied for NATO membership in May 2022, which the Finnish government said would "strengthen security in the changed security environment." The decision signaled a move away from historic Nordic non-alignment, Russia's invasion of Ukraine serving as a "trigger for Finland to apply," according to former NATO official Edward Hunter Christie said.

Helsinki's induction into NATO is unlikely to make a stronger case for Ukrainian membership in the short term, experts say.

Ukraine has a long history of wanting to be a NATO member, and is one of four countries, including Georgia, currently vying for acceptance into the alliance. In 2008, NATO agreed that Ukraine would join NATO at an undetermined point in the future, saying that Kyiv, along with Tbilisi, had "made valuable contributions to Alliance operations."

However, Ukraine remains outside the formal structure of the alliance, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying in late September 2022 that Kyiv would push for fast-tracked membership.

Promises made as early as 2008 only "antagonized the Russians," without offering Ukraine the security of guarantees, effectively making for the "worst of both worlds," according to David Dunn, professor of international relations at Birmingham University in the U.K.

"Every aspect of this conflict is characterized by two conflicting security considerations," he told Newsweek. "One is what is in the best interest of Ukraine, and the other is what's in the best interest of European security as a whole."

Whereas Finland, and, as expected, Sweden, have "very large, very well-trained and very well-equipped forces," the picture is more complicated in Ukraine's case, he argued.

But for others, Ukraine is a significant contributor to European and NATO security already. Post-war, Ukraine "will have sacrificed plenty in holding back Russia," but could also be the "only armed forces with actual fighting experience against the main threat to NATO, which is Russia," Christie said.

Along with a sense that Ukraine is seen by many as now deserving of NATO membership, this experience "has military value, and will continue to have military value, in and of itself, for some time," he told Newsweek.

The key issue is timing, experts say. Although Finland's accession shows NATO's "open door policy" is still in effect, Christie noted, this principle will likely not be applied to Ukraine while the war continues.

While Ukraine is engaged in full-scale war against Russia, joining NATO could bring the alliance into a "full, head-on collision" with Moscow, he said.

Under Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty, an attack against one alliance member is deemed an attack against the entire bloc, to which it is bound to respond.

"Nobody is going to want to enter into some sort of automatic process through Article 5," Christie said. "As long as Ukraine has the goal of using military means to recover all of its territory—while that process is still ongoing, I cannot imagine Ukraine becoming a member of NATO."

However, the picture may be different for Ukraine in the long term. Much depends on how the ongoing war ends, experts say, but Ukraine's future membership of NATO may be more likely now than if the war had not broken out.

In the years leading up to the full-scale Russian invasion, "very few people seriously expected Ukraine's membership of NATO to go forward, not on any meaningful timeline," Christie said, adding this had now changed.

A Ukraine of the future could be equipped with NATO-standard equipment, on which its armed forces are already trained, which makes the country "ready for future NATO integration from a longer term perspective," Christie said.

It may also be the case that NATO continues to work closely with Kyiv for security assurances against Russia, without that formal membership, he added.

Newsweek has contacted NATO and Ukraine's foreign ministry for comment.