As Biden Dawdles on ATACMS, Expert Suggests Next Best Thing for Ukraine

The U.S. should send new cluster munitions to Ukraine, a former adviser to Kyiv's military has said, as Ukraine's chances of securing promises of Washington's coveted long-range ATACMS, or Army Tactical Missile System, appear slim.

The U.S. should provide Ukraine with M26, M26A1 and M39 rockets that can be fired from HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems), according to Dan Rice, a former adviser to Ukraine's top general, Valery Zaluzhny.

"The cluster rockets are far and away the best additional weapon for this counteroffensive," Rice, now president of American University Kyiv, told Newsweek.

The U.S. agreed to send dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM) in July, and footage quickly emerged reportedly showing the first Ukrainian use of cluster bombs as Kyiv forged ahead with its counteroffensive against Russian defenses in southern and eastern Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Reuters reported that a second tranche of 155 mm cluster munitions would be part of a new, $325 million military aid package to be announced on Thursday. The package, when confirmed, will coincide with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's trip to Washington on the same day.

Earlier in September, The New York Times reported that the U.S. was planning to send another tranche of DPICMs to Ukraine, citing three U.S. officials. One unidentified official said that cluster bombs were crucial in making sure Kyiv could sustain the momentum of its counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.

But just as it appeared Ukraine could be close to securing the U.S. military's ATACMS, reports suggested the U.S. would not commit the surface-to-surface system to Kyiv. It is not expected to feature in the upcoming military aid package, Reuters reported.

General Mark Milley, the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Defense One in March that the U.S. has "relatively few ATACMS," and that Washington needed to maintain its own stocks. However, Washington does have stocks of M39 rockets, with a range of 100 miles, and M26A1 rockets, which have a range of 28 miles, that are scheduled to be destroyed. These HIMARS cluster munitions should be redirected to Ukraine, Rice said.

Media reports have long speculated that the Pentagon's reluctance to supply ATACMS is linked to worries over escalating the conflict, and whether such weapons would be used to target internationally-recognized Russian territory. However, the United Kingdom and France donated the Anglo-French Storm Shadow, or SCALP, air-launched missiles to Ukraine earlier this year, which are long range, like ATACMS.

Ukraine has repeatedly petitioned the U.S. to provide ATACMS, and bolster its ability to strike deep behind Russia's well-defended front lines.

Rice believes Ukraine should receive the Lockheed Martin-made ATACMS. However, there are "also many additional options that could be lesser range" than the 300-kilometer, or 186-mile, ATACMS, Rice said. These could also have a "significant impact for the counteroffensive."

Currently, HIMARS are only used by Ukraine against command and control centers and supply depots, he said, rather than on the front line against a wider range of targets or counter-battery fire. This is where M26, M26A1 and M39 rockets could be used to directly support the gruelling counteroffensive efforts.

Using HIMARS launchers, Ukraine would be able to reach further behind the front lines than it can using its current cluster munitions, Rice said. Kyiv has been using their donated HIMARS effectively for over a year, and they have become one of the staples of the artillery battle dominating the almost 19-month old war.

HIMARS-launched cluster rockets "are far and away the best additional weapon for this counteroffensive," Rice said.

Currently, the 155 mm DPICM rounds that Ukraine has already received from the U.S. cannot reach deep-lying Russian artillery targets, he said. Longer range cluster rockets, like the M39, would not only be able to hit such artillery systems, but associated vehicles, ammunition, personnel and other nearby equipment, too, he added.

"The cluster rockets are an integral component of the family of artillery weapons," Rice said. "The U.S. would never attack into this formidable Russian defense without the cluster rockets."

Ukraine is deploying cluster munitions "quite effectively," White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said in mid-July. "They are actually having an impact on Russia's defensive formations and Russia's defensive maneuvering," he added.

But the decision on cluster munitions was a controversial one, despite their potential battlefield impact.

Cluster munitions work by releasing multiple smaller bombs, or sub-munitions, over a wide area. However, more than 120 countries across the world have banned cluster bombs, as they can place civilians in harm's way and detonate long after they are fired.

Newsweek has reached out to the Pentagon and Ukraine's General Staff for comment.