Ukraine's Lyman Offensive Could Deal Another Major Blow to Putin's Invasion

A Russian-installed official in Ukraine acknowledged Friday that President Vladimir Putin's forces in the occupied city of Lyman were partially encircled, potentially leading to what some believe could be a strategic Ukrainian victory in the eastern Donetsk region.

"Our guys are fighting, we are pulling up reserves, we must hold out, but the enemy has also thrown serious forces. Very unpleasant news, but we must look soberly at the situation and draw conclusions from our mistakes," Denis Pushilin, the Russian-appointed governor of Donetsk, wrote on Telegram.

Before this admission, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its September 28 campaign assessment that Russian military bloggers had been discussing Ukrainian advances in the Lyman area with "increased concern," as well as suggesting that a Russian defeat in the city could be "imminent."

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry had not been addressing Ukrainian advances around Lyman or preparing for the potential loss of the city, which could further deteriorate low Russian morale, the ISW said.

If Ukraine reclaims Lyman, it would be the newest high-profile loss for Putin after several recent defeats for his troops in the eastern Kharkiv and southern Kherson region. To make matters worse, Putin on Friday formally announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, a move that Western nations have decried as illegal and illegitimate, and vowed that Russia will defeat Ukraine.

Donetsk is one of those four regions, so Ukraine recapturing Lyman as Russia touts the "sham" annexation will be "psychologically humiliating for the Kremlin," Ben Hodges, former commanding general of United States Army Europe, told Newsweek.

"This will shine a bright light on the ridiculousness of this whole sham of the referendum and then the annexation," Hodges said. "He can't enforce it. It's not theirs."

Operationally, Ukraine recapturing Lyman means that several thousand Russian soldiers could be killed or captured, while most of their equipment there could be destroyed or captured as well, according to Hodges. He added that while he cannot predict how Russia will respond to such a loss, there can be a psychological effect and a "potential for panic" with this type of breakthrough.

Following the potential capture of Lyman, the outside world may not know what Ukraine would do next, but Ukrainian troops have been clever in knowing how to exploit Russian weaknesses and seize opportunities, Hodges said.

"I believe that they're going to push the Russians back to the 23 February line before the end of the year and that they will be in Crimea about the middle of next summer," Hodges said, referencing the day before Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine.

And when the approaching winter arrives, Hodges believes that Ukrainians will fare better and look to "maintain pressure" on the Russian army, which is allegedly already receiving new soldiers on the frontlines with "minimal" preparation after being conscripted in Putin's partial draft.

William Reno, a professor of political science at Northwestern University, told Newsweek that Lyman and another Donetsk city, Bakhmut, "might be transport hubs of a sort." Logistically, Lyman and Bakhmut aren't fully without strategic importance on the ground, but their "significance is more political," Reno said.

"This part of the conflict is a piece of the larger Russian strategy, which is to show Ukrainians and the rest of the world that Russia won't go away," he said.

Ukraine still currently controls Bakhmut despite the city facing months of Russian shelling. The battle for both cities shows "the extent to which Russian forces still attempt to grind down Ukrainian forces," Reno said.

"The value to the Russians is to deprive Ukrainian forces of the strategic initiative they gained from operations earlier this month to take Russian-held territory," he continued. "Though some territory changes hands, both battles present a picture of a stalled Ukrainian advance. This contributed to the political space for Putin to announce the sham referendums."

Reno said that Russia is guessing that Ukraine's supporters around the world may back off in a year or two amid fears over the future of Europe's energy supply–Russia reportedly typically supplies about 40 percent of Europe's natural gas–and divisions in Western countries over Ukraine aid.

But if Russia is not able to hold Lyman and seize control of Bakhmut, this would mean that Ukraine still has a "strategic initiative," Reno said. When Ukraine was able to reclaim territory from Russia earlier this month in rapid counteroffensives–the commander of Ukraine's military said on September 11 that his forces had regained 3,000 square kilometers of territory from Russia since the start of September–this wasn't a large percentage of what Russia occupied.

"But it was significant because it signaled to Ukraine's backers that all the weapons, all the training, all the political support has a payoff," Reno said.

Russia being able to hold its current lines in the conflict could signal to the world that the Ukrainian advance wasn't actually a turning point in the monthslong war, he added.