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Russia is bearing down on Ukrainian forces in the northeast of the country in an offensive that could herald territorial gains for Moscow, according to a new assessment. It is an ominous sign for a Ukraine struggling to secure new Western military aid two years into the full-scale war.
Moscow is carrying out a "cohesive multi-axis offensive operation" along the northern section of the current front lines in eastern Ukraine, working towards an "operationally significant objective for nearly the first time in over a year and a half of campaigning in Ukraine," the U.S. think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said in an analysis on Wednesday.
Russia has been pressing down on Ukrainian defenses close to the borders of Ukraine's Kharkiv and Luhansk regions for weeks. At the same time, it has thrown resources at Avdiivka, the embattled Donetsk city from which Kyiv's forces withdrew over the weekend.
Moscow has also made some gains around the Zaporizhzhia settlement of Robotyne, one of the few villages Ukraine successfully took from Russia in its summer 2023 counteroffensive.
Russia's efforts around Kharkiv and Luhansk include "attacks along four parallel axes" that could provide real wins for Russia, the ISW think tank said.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.
New maps, produced by the ISW, show Russian pushes toward Kupiansk from the northeast and the southeast, as well as an effort heading northwest from positions south of Svatove, a Luhansk city under Russian control.
The Kremlin's troops are also working to advance northwest and southwest of Kreminna, including towards the Kharkiv town of Lyman, the maps show.
Russia's Defense Ministry said on Thursday that its western grouping of forces had attacked Ukrainian forces around Petropavlivka, a village just west of the city of Kupiansk. Moscow "repelled" three Ukrainian attacks around Synkivka, just north of Petropavlivka, the ministry said in a statement.
Ukraine's military said in its own update on Thursday that Russia had attacked around Synkivka and Tabaivka, southeast of the former.
Russian forces started a localized offensive around Synkivka and Petropavlivka in October 2023, the ISW said. Moscow is likely hoping to seize control of the east bank of the Oskil River that passes through the Kharkiv region, it evaluated.
In the initial weeks of Russia's full-scale invasion, Moscow claimed swathes of territory in northeastern Ukraine. Kyiv then reclaimed much of the captured land in its 2022 counteroffensive rolling through Kharkiv.
Ukraine's counteroffensive the following year enjoyed far less success, which Kyiv partly chalked up to delays in Western weapons deliveries and depleted ammunition stocks. Ukraine is still waiting on pledges of more military aid from its largest backer, the U.S., which have languished in Congress since the end of last year.
About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more