NATO's Patchwork Air Defenses Failed Ukraine. What Now?

Ukraine has welcomed pledges by the West of more missile defense systems as Russian strikes on cities this week show that time is of the essence for their delivery and deployment.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said his military may have intercepted around half of the 84 missiles and 24 armed drones that Moscow fired this week but he emphasized such terror tactics could only be thwarted by "a sufficient quantity of modern and effective air defense systems."

How many of the systems—which intercept and destroy airborne threats such as missiles, helicopters and drones—Ukraine receives will depend on Vladimir Putin's next actions and the generosity of Kyiv's allies.

"It's very difficult to say how many exactly we need," said Volodymyr Omelyan, who was Ukraine's minister of infrastructure between 2016 and 2019.

"We have at least 50 major cities which should be well protected. In my opinion, one system is not enough even to cover one city," Omelyan told Newsweek, "So you can easily multiply that and see we need at least 200 pieces to protect major cities."

Forbes reported in April that Ukraine had around 100 active batteries of Russian-made S-300 long-range air-defense systems, with as many as 300 launchers at the start of the war on February 24.

Russia has taken some of those out but Kyiv does not publicize its air defense capability, Glen Grant, a senior defense expert at the Baltic Security Foundation think tank who advised Ukraine on its military reform, told Newsweek. But the attacks on Ukrainian cities this week have spurred Kyiv's allies to step up support.

Germany has delivered the first of four high-tech air-defense IRIS-T missile systems, which are designed to counter attacks from manned aircraft, drones and cruise and ballistic missiles.

French President Emmanuel Macron pledged help would be provided but did not specify what systems would be sent, although Ukraine has shown interest in France's SAMP/T system.

Two U.S. National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS)—are weeks away from delivery, the Pentagon said, although there are efforts underway to expedite the process. An additional six units are destined for Ukraine, but manufacturing them is likely to take a year or more.

The U.K announced it would provide British advanced medium range air to air missile rockets (AMRAAMs), which can be used with the U.S. systems.

"The only issue is that missiles are attacking Ukraine right now and to deliver those new weapons to protect Ukraine from those attacks, it will take in my opinion, weeks, not even days," Omelyan said.

John Venable, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Center for National Defense said that Ukraine has been relying primarily on S-300 and American portable Stinger missile systems.

He said the S-300s have been effective but defending a country which is 700 miles across with hilly and forested terrain "makes it a big challenge." They can defend against a Russian bomber coming in at 15,000 feet, but "the real challenge right now are these cruise missiles that Russia is firing," Venable told Newsweek.

"Some of them have launch profiles where they fly in at medium altitude for a long time and then they dive down low for endgame maneuvering."

Stingers and NASAMS are effective "as long as [their operators] have the ability to see them and see them long enough to hit them."

However, complicating missile defense delivery is the need to remove critical pieces that the provider does not want to risk falling into Russian hands.

Venable said that the systems were "never meant to be given away" and so were not designed for parts to be removed "that you don't want the Russians to get" before being supplied.

"That purification process, for lack of a better term, takes time. And I think that more than anything else is holding up the delivery of the system," he said.

The U.S. has also been reluctant to share the Patriot missile system, which it would not want captured, The Washington Post reported.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced on Tuesday that Kyiv had received four more U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which have had a devastating impact. Since the U.S. first provided HIMARS, military aid announced by Washington has included munitions for it.

"From our experience, using (the howitzer) M777s or HIMARS, ammunition is the backbone for success and the capability of those systems to work 24/7," said Omelyan who expressed hope the munitions and systems supplied by the West could be easily integrated.

"I would say that the U.S. Army has shown the best example of all systems united under one umbrella," he said. "From my personal experience as a former minister of infrastructure, if you do different systems under one umbrella it's very difficult after to organize its maintenance," he said.

Newsweek has contacted NATO for comment.