Why Ukraine's Raft of Breakthroughs Will Worry Putin

Ukraine has said its forces are pushing ahead in western Zaporizhzhia, with experts divided as to whether the reported gains in their counteroffensive have delivered a blow to Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Ukrainian troops are advancing near Verbove in western Zaporizhzhia in the counteroffensive, which started around June 4 and is aimed at recapturing Russian-occupied territory and cutting, or making untenable, the land corridor between occupied Crimea and western Russia.

Kyiv has made some headline-grabbing moves in the last few weeks, starting with pushing past the first cordon of Russia's defenses known as the "Surovikin line," built on the orders of General Sergey Surovikin while he was still in charge of Russian forces.

Ukraine said at the end of August it recaptured Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia. Meanwhile, the general leading the counteroffensive along the southern sector, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, told CNN there will be a big breakthrough after Tokmak. There are reports his troops are close to the city critical for Russia's defense of Melitopol, which is considered the gateway to Crimea.

Adding to Ukraine morale for their stated war aim of retaking Crimea was the strike on Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in city of Sevastopol last week. Kyiv said it killed 34 officers, including the fleet commander, Viktor Sokolov, although Moscow has not confirmed this.

Seth Krummrich, vice president of client risk management at security intelligence firm Global Guardian and a retired U.S. Army colonel, said although the counteroffensive has produced "modest results", these are still "a win for Ukraine, especially as the defender."

Every Ukrainian gain, "even those that seem tactically insignificant, creates expensive headaches for Putin in the form of negative global strategic messaging."

"Putin does not have a reasonable response or solution to the counter-offensive's gains," he said. "Yes, he can hang on to the bloody status quo for a time, even years at great expense to the Russian people. But in the long term, this is unsustainable for Russia."

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Monday that the tactical situation in Verbove "remains unclear." Ukraine's General Staff reported continued offensive operations in the Melitopol direction and offensive assaults in the Bakhmut direction, which inflicted losses on Russian manpower and equipment and depleted Russian forces "along the entire front line."

However, Vuk Vuksanovic, an associate at the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, said Ukraine's gains could only be termed as a "minor success compared to what was envisioned as the primary goal... a swift thrust through Russian positions to the Black Sea, cutting the Russian forces in two."

"It appears that Ukrainians are falling short of their envisioned strategic goal, " he told Newsweek, pointing out that Kyiv's troops have lacked artillery ammunition, air superiority and air defense systems needed to go against well-fortified Russians.

Douglas Webber, emeritus professor of political science at the European Institute of Business Administration (INSEAD), said that Putin "is unlikely to be unduly perturbed by recent, territorially limited Ukrainian gains" unless they enable Ukraine to make a decisive breakthrough and isolate Crimea from Russia.

"Putin is playing a long game. He is banking on two things—that Ukraine will run out of soldiers before Russia...and run out of money and equipment as Western and NATO support for Ukraine dwindles."

The ISW said on Sunday there were "indicators" that things are looking up for Kyiv's forces and that in Zaporizhzhia, Russia did not have the numbers to "completely man its defenses in depth."

However, the think tank said for Kyiv to make a significant breakthrough, its forces would need to have enough combat power—which Russia would have to lack, and Russian defenses would need to be less mined than the ones Kyiv's troops have already fought through.

Krummrich said that the best option in the southern sector of the front for Ukraine would be to not push to Tokmak and Melitopol but rather consolidate and reinforce its gains now, before the winter descends.

"This gives Ukraine the best chance to keep the terrain from any future Russian assaults and protects its forces for the long fight," he said, although the downside is a missed opportunity to grab Tokmak and potentially Melitopol this year.

"To achieve their goals, Ukraine needs to keep steady pressure and inflict losses on Russia. They don't need a breakthrough victory tomorrow."