Ukraine's 'Bravado' Showing Through Blatant Dismissal of Putin Belarus Trip

After Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Monday amid concerns about a new assault from Belarus in the Ukraine war, a Ukrainian official dismissed the meeting as just "another dance" between the allies.

"According to the available information, no critical decisions were made at this meeting. Whatever happens, we are ready for any scenario," Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said during an online briefing, according to The Moscow Times.

But the Putin-Lukashenko meeting took place in the backdrop of a recent increase in military activities in Belarus. The Interfax news agency, citing Russia's Defense Ministry, reported Monday that Russian troops will conduct military exercises in Belarus. The Belarusians also announced last week that the nation would be conducting a snap inspection of its troops' combat readiness, Reuters reported.

While refraining from direct involvement in the war in Ukraine, Belarus has aided Russia's aggression by allowing Putin to stage troops within and launch attacks from its territory.

Experts have offered differing opinions on whether Kuleba was right to dismiss the potential implications of Putin's meeting with Lukashenko in light of this recent flurry of activity. Dr. Michael Butler, associate professor in Clark University's political science department, told Newsweek that this dismissal "might reflect a bit of bluster or bravado on Ukraine's part."

"The recent flurry of activity in Belarus is not insignificant," Butler said. "Still, most recent defense and intelligence analysis of Belarus' military capacity and combat readiness – and perhaps especially, morale – indicate that its entry into the war would hardly be a definitive game-changer. Strategically such a move would matter [in] that it would open up another 'front' of sorts, requiring Ukraine to commit further resources and attention to its border with Belarus and thereby stretching itself thin."

Michael Kimmage, professor and chair of the Catholic University of America's history department, believes that a new invasion by both Belarusian and Russian troops from Lukashenko's territory does not seem very likely in light of Russia's current struggles in the war. He mentioned Russia's "humiliating" withdrawal from the city of Kherson last month, as well as Russia's months-long effort to seize the city of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region.

"It sort of defies belief that they could mount a serious invasion from the north," Kimmage told Newsweek. Threatening to launch an invasion from Belarus, which is to the north of Ukraine, may also have its own utility in drawing Ukrainian troops away from other important warfronts.

Kimmage added that there have been surprises in the war, but he believes the probability of a significant invasion from Belarus is "extremely low."

On the other hand, Jonathan Katz, director of democracy initiatives and senior fellow with The German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Newsweek that he believes there are reasons to be concerned about Russia potentially opening up a new warfront or launching a new bid to take the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's government can't "let their guard down" on the northern front, but the regime also recognizes that Putin may be trying to funnel Ukrainian resources and attention to the north while he takes part in other activities, Katz said.

Direct involvement by Belarus in the war is something that Lukashenko "would certainly like to avoid," but he may face pressure to play a more significant role in the conflict, Katz said.

"There seems to be no appetite amongst Belarusians to want to enter this conflict, so that's why this would have to be really forced by the Kremlin to push Mr. Lukashenko into action," Katz added. "He's more interested in preserving his own power than anything else."