Ukrainian Politician Warns Putin Has 2 Paths to Victory

As the Russia-Ukraine war approaches its 11-month mark, Ukrainian lawmaker Yehor Cherniev said that Vladimir Putin has two paths to victory.

The Russian president launched the "special military operation" in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, aiming for a quick victory. However, his troops for months largely struggled to achieve substantial gains against Ukraine's stronger-than-expected defensive effort, which has been bolstered by Western military aid.

Cherniev, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, warned that Putin still has at least two ways he could win the war despite Ukrainian gains throughout the fall and winter.

"His first option is Russia's quick, complete victory and Ukraine's capitulation. He may try to start a new offensive for Kyiv," Cherniev wrote on Tuesday.

Russia initially targeted the capital city of Kyiv but failed to take it as its troops were forced to retreat.

Since then, Russia has dealt with several difficulties, including challenges maintaining motivated soldiers, reports of significant casualties among its troops and economic fallout brought on by Western sanctions that allowed Ukraine to retake occupied areas.

Cherniev warned that in this scenario, Russia could "hit some targets" in Western Ukraine to cut off transportation routes that connect Ukraine to much of Europe, which has provided key military and economic aid throughout the war.

Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program and the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Newsweek on Tuesday that this strategy is unlikely to be viable for Putin.

"That is, it appears, what the Russian strategy was in February 2022," he said. "They were not successfully able to do that. They didn't have the combined arms capability, morale, command and control, logistics. And nothing in what the Russians have done since then have indicated they have notably improved."

He added that satellite imagery hasn't shown that Russia has built up forces in a way that would indicate another attempt at a quick takeover.

Cherniev Warns of 'Longer Option'

Cherniev also said that Putin could take a "longer" path to victory that would involve his military seizing regions in Eastern Ukraine, including Donbas.

Putin claimed to annex four regions—Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia—following referendums widely dismissed as sham elections by the West, last year. With those territories under Russian control, the Kremlin would prepare for their next offensive, Cherniev warned.

"At the same time, they may try to begin preparing for the next military campaign in 6-12 months to achieve their goal—the elimination of our statehood and Ukraine's annexation," Cherniev wrote.

Jones agreed that this option is "where the Russians are at" and that they could attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops in key Eastern regions in the coming months. He described two other strategies Russia could take, as well, the first aimed at stopping Ukrainian advances, giving their own troops a chance to rebuild for a later offensive.

He also said Russia could end up considering the use of nuclear weapons, but it would would be a "risky step."

"It's not clear that the use of nuclear weapons would actually be that effective militarily," Jones said. "They don't solve the combined arms problems that the Russian army faces, and they would almost certainly lead to major retribution, sanctions, diplomatic isolation and potentially even worse for Vladimir Putin."

Cherniev indicated Ukraine would be prepared to defend its territory in either scenario.

"But Ukraine and our allies also have some plans for him," he tweeted. "Soon he would see them on the battlefield."

Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for comment.