U.S. 2024 Election Could Be 'Catastrophic' for Russia: Senator

A prominent member of the Russian senate has warned that the 2024 U.S. presidential election might prompt more support for Ukraine in its ongoing defensive war against Moscow's full-scale invasion.

Konstantin Kosachev, the deputy speaker of Russia's Federation Council—the upper house of the Federal Assembly of Russia parliament—told aif.ru in an interview published on Monday that Moscow faces "a very dangerous situation" as Democratic and Republican hopefuls maneuver for advantage in the coming contest.

"The Americans are not afraid to use foreign policy in their interparty rivalry," Kosachev said, per a translation published by the state-run Tass news agency. "If one of the parties feels that it needs to escalate the situation in Ukraine in order to gain more votes in the elections, it will do so."

"So, the fact that the presidential election in the United States, which will culminate in 2024, could be a terrible, if not catastrophic event. I can't guarantee that there will be an escalation, but the risk is obvious to me. The unpredictability of American behavior will increase and the tail may start wagging the dog again."

President Vladimir Putin seemingly hopes to outlast the Western coalition that mobilized in support of Ukraine shortly before, and then during, Russia's full-scale invasion. Kyiv's forces have now liberated around half of all territory occupied by Moscow and are still on the offensive in the south and east of the country.

But the Kremlin shows little sign of downgrading its vague and maximalist war goals. There now appears a near-zero chance of Russian troops occupying Kyiv as originally intended, but Moscow's forces still hold around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, are bombarding Ukrainian cities, and are devastating the national economy.

In the occupied regions, Russian troops have embarked on a Russification campaign that will complicate future reintegration by Ukrainian authorities.

With its conventional armed forces struggling, Moscow has repeatedly reverted to nuclear threats in its effort to dissuade continued Western support for Ukraine. Russian officials have simultaneously dismissed the value of Western weapon deliveries to Kyiv while complaining that foreign weapons are extending the conflict.

Kosachev told aif.ru that the delivery of more advanced Western weapons increases the likelihood of nuclear escalation. "Fortunately, we have not yet reached that threshold," he said. "However, there is a risk of approaching it."

There also appears no hope of renewed peace talks. Negotiations began in the hours following Russia's invasion in February 2022, but within months had collapsed amid wildly differing demands, subterfuge, and emerging evidence of Russian war crimes in occupied Ukrainian territory.

Moscow has repeatedly blamed the U.S. for hamstringing proposed talks, though Russian officials have consistently refused to soften demands that would constitute Ukrainian capitulation.

Ukrainian officials have made clear they will not negotiate until all Russian forces have left Ukrainian territory. Even then, Kyiv is demanding full liberation, reparations from Moscow and the prosecution of Russian leaders for war crimes.

Kosachev echoed the Kremlin stance regarding the failure of negotiations. "They began in March last year but were thwarted by an unprecedented external influence on Ukraine," he said of peace talks. "Then, by decree, President [Volodymyr] Zelensky banned himself and all other Ukrainian authorities from engaging in such talks."

"This is, of course, a decision made by the United States. They most likely have the ability to reverse their decision. But I have not yet seen such intentions."

A Pivotal Election

Russia has meddled in past American elections, though top Kremlin officials still deny efforts to covertly influence U.S. votes. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin—who also oversaw the Internet Research Agency "troll factory"—said in 2022: "We interfered, we interfere and we will interfere," adding "carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.

Whether Russia interferes or not, the 2024 presidential election may yet offer Putin a much needed opportunity to weaken Western resolve. The U.S. remains by far Ukraine's most generous foreign partner, contributing almost $80 billion worth of military, humanitarian and financial aid since February 24, 2022.

U.S. support for Ukraine remains broadly popular among voters and lawmakers. One Reuters/Ipsos poll published in June found that 81 percent of Democrats, 56 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of Independents are still in favor of supplying U.S. weapons to Kyiv. Just over 1,000 people were interviewed for the survey.

Still, minority movements on both sides of the aisle are agitating against continued or expanded military aid for Kyiv. This is particularly pointed on the right wing of the GOP, where a small group of influential House representatives are challenging the pro-Ukraine Republican orthodoxy.

The presidential contest also looks set to heavily feature debates about the war on Ukraine. American backing for Kyiv—and Ukraine's subsequent success—has been touted as a historic success by President Joe Biden's White House, but isolationist candidates from both parties are trying to wield it against him.

From the Democratic side, would-be candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—who indulges a broad range of conspiracy theories and is polling at around 15 percent among Democrats—is calling for renewed dialogue with Moscow and blaming the U.S. and Zelensky for causing the current conflict.

Among Republicans, former President Donald Trump's campaign for a second stint in the White House appears unencumbered by his failure to fully support Kyiv's war goals. Trump has repeatedly demanded that Ukraine make concessions to secure peace, telling Fox News earlier this month "I would tell Zelensky, no more," when detailing his plan to end the war in 24 hours. "You got to make a deal," he added.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis—currently running a distant second to Trump in polls on the race for the Republican nomination—faced backlash earlier this year when he said Ukraine was not vital to American national security and characterized Russia's full-scale invasion as a "territorial dispute." DeSantis walked back the comments after widespread criticism.

Kyiv, meanwhile, is hoping to stay out of the 2024 mudslinging. Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna told Newsweek in July that Ukraine remains confident of collective American backing regardless of the ongoing foreign policy debates.

"There might be discussions, there might be visions, there might be proposals, there might be some electoral slogans—which are already taking place," Stefanishyna said. "But at the end of the day, we feel ourselves more or less secure, knowing that it is Ukraine, at the end of the day, who would have to make the decisions."