China Would Lose War With U.S., Simulations Predict

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely fail but result in a costly victory for the United States and allies including Japan, a Washington think tank concluded this week after reviewing the outcomes of two dozen war games.

Under most circumstances, Chinese forces were unsuccessful in their operational objectives and weren't able to occupy Taipei after two weeks, despite landing tens of thousands of troops on the island, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which predicted a "pyrrhic victory" for the defending side.

China claims Taiwan as its own, but Taipei has rejected the sovereignty assertions for decades. The neighbors are separated by the 110-mile wide Taiwan Strait, around which a bloody air and maritime battle would be fought if Beijing opted for the "most dangerous solution" to the longstanding political differences, CSIS said in a report on Monday.

The 24-game series modeled the most likely scenarios following a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan in 2026, around the time U.S. officials believe Beijing wants to have the means to, rather than actually intends to, launch a full-scale amphibious assault on the democratically governed island.

"The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan's navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities," CSIS said. "Augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island."

"Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers cross the strait in a mix of military amphibious craft and civilian roll- on, roll-off ships, while air assault and airborne troops land behind the beachheads," it continued.

In spite of its numerical advantage on paper, China's landing force remains limited in its lift capacity and is vulnerable to missile attacks in transit. Although Chinese troops reached Taiwanese beaches in 100 percent of the games, they were unable to capture working ports and airfields, restricting their ability to resupply and sustain the attack, the report said.

The Chinese military would be able to land about 8,000 soldiers on Taiwan on the first day, or 16,000 after three and a half days, compared to the 90,000 Allied troops who reached the beaches of northern France during the Normandy landings of World War II, the authors said.

"Thus, Chinese capabilities are much less than Allied capabilities on D-Day, and a successful initial lodgment does not guarantee eventual success," said authors Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian and Eric Heginbotham.

While the wargaming resulted in a Taiwan that remained autonomous from China, losses on all sides were staggering, they said. Taiwan's economy and infrastructure were devastated, American military losses damaged the U.S.'s global position, and the defeat had unpredictable consequences for the Communist Party's continued rule over China.

"Considering the short period of time, U.S. air losses were greater than any witnessed since the Vietnam War. Naval losses were greater than anything experienced since World War II," the authors said.

Base scenarios, which excluded optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, predicted Taiwan's air force would lose the bulk of its 534 combat aircraft, and Taiwan's navy its 38 major vessels. Taiwan's army suffered some 3,500 casualties, including about one-third killed in action, in a limited land battle.

The number of American servicemembers killed, wounded or missing would near 10,000. The U.S. Navy typically lost two aircraft carriers and up to 20 major surface ships—destroyers or cruisers—and the U.S. Air Force lost between 168 and 372 planes.

Japan, a U.S. treaty ally, would likely join the fight if its military bases, which host American forces, were targeted by Chinese missile strikes, said the authors, who calculated Tokyo's average aircraft losses at 122, with a further two dozen or so warships put out of action.

China "suffers heavily" in the simulations, they said. "Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war."

The war games estimated 161 Chinese aircraft lost and 138 ships sunk on average, according to the authors. Beijing's troop causalities reached 7,000 soldiers, including one-third assumed killed, and another 15,000 lost at sea, with half assumed killed. More than 30,000 soldiers would likely become prisoners of war.

Four conditions were critical to the costly success of repelling a Chinese invasion, said CSIS: Taiwan must resist, the U.S. must immediately commit to direct combat, U.S. forces must be able to operate from Japan, and the U.S. must maintain a sufficient stockpile of anti-ship missiles to blunt the amphibious assault.

Taiwan's willingness to defend itself was contrasted with capitulation, which would result in Chinese occupation in a matter of months, the report said. The U.S. has no legal obligation to defend the island, but experts believe Chinese war planners already expect American forces to intervene.

Among the report's recommendations were policies to reduce high costs to the U.S. and therefore increase the burden on China's calculus, moves that could ultimately deter an attack from ever taking place. Taiwan's continued adoption of a "porcupine strategy" of asymmetric defense and deepening U.S.-Japan diplomatic and military ties should be prioritized, it said.

Drawing further lessons from Ukraine, the authors said a "Ukraine model" of Western resupply "cannot be replicated in Taiwan because China can isolate the island for weeks or even months."

"Taiwan must start the war with everything it needs. Further, delays and half measures by the United States would make the defense harder, increase U.S. casualties, allow China to create a stronger lodgment, and raise the risk of escalation," they said.

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