US Navy Faces Houthi Anti-Ship Missile Threat 'Superior' to Most States

The U.S. Navy in the Red Sea is contending with Yemen-based Houthi rebels, but little is known about what exactly the Iranian-backed forces have in their arsenal. Yet one thing is clear—they are stocked up with anti-ship missiles that could, under the right circumstances, pose a threat to the U.S. military in the Middle East.

On Sunday, the U.S. said there had been "four attacks against three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea," launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen. Several drones were shot down by the U.S. warship, the USS Carney, as a series of missiles were fired from Houthi territory and damaged two of the cargo vessels, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement.

One of these missiles was an anti-ship ballistic missile, CENTCOM said.

A spokesperson for Houthi forces said one vessel was targeted with an anti-ship missile and the second with a sea drone.

The Houthi rebels' "anti-ship missile arsenal is not only comparable but superior to probably most state actors," according to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow specializing in Middle East defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

It's very difficult to pin down numbers, as the Houthis have not been forthcoming about the size of their smuggled and donated weapons stockpile, he told Newsweek.

Anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles are "a very, very niche capability that only very few countries have—including Iran—and Iran shared it with the Houthis," Hinz said.

"Such capabilities are highly unusual for an insurgency," said Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the U.K.'s Royal United Services Institute think tank.

The Houthis originally hoarded missiles captured from the Yemeni government, but have supplemented their missile stocks in the last few years with weapons from Iran, said William Freer, research fellow in national security at the London-based Council on Geostrategy.

Tehran supplied at least six different types of ballistic missiles, three variants of cruise missiles and eight kinds of loitering munitions to the Houthis, as well as three forms of anti-ship missiles and rockets, he told Newsweek.

There have also been reports suggesting Houthi forces have fired anti-ship ballistic missiles—something that is "largely unproven," Kaushal told Newsweek.

"What will be key is how many of these missiles and drones the Houthis possess and how quickly they can replenish stocks," Freer said.

But working this out can only be a guessing game, experts say. Houthi forces have shown themselves able to launch thousands of strikes on Saudi Arabia over the years; "if they wanted to, the Houthis could, albeit not indefinitely, ramp up the scale of these naval strikes," Freer argued.

How Do the Houthis Compare to the U.S. Navy?

The Houthis may have a cache of anti-ship missiles, but this doesn't bring them in line with the vast capabilities of the U.S. Navy.

"They have a few technological gaps in their overall military," Hinz said. They lack a powerful air force and significant reconnaissance assets, he said, despite their "very substantial" asymmetric power in weapons like anti-ship missiles and naval mines.

The Houthis have some older-generation main battle tanks, as well as infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, although precise figures are not available. They are also thought to have a series of Iranian-designed missiles, like the Fateh-110 ballistic missile and the Dehlavieh anti-tank missile.

When pitted against sophisticated defenses like the U.S. warship's Aegis missile defense systems, the Houthi missiles present a contained, "but not zero," danger to U.S. assets, Freer evaluated.

"However, against less capable or unarmed ships, these weapons pose a very serious danger and, depending on the size of the warhead, could even sink vessels," he said. "It is also important to recognize, however, that even the best-defended warship in the world could be hit by a lucky strike."

The threat posed by Houthi weapons "is one that modern navies are well equipped to cope with, unless crews are surprised," Kaushal said. "They represent a much more potent threat to civilian shipping, though their presence does introduce an element of risk into what would previously have been risk-free deployments for most navies."

Two of the cargo ships struck by Houthi missiles in the Red Sea on Sunday, the Unity Explorer and the Number 9, reported damage, CENTCOM said. "These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security," the U.S. said. "They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world."

The U.S. Navy is designed for precisely this kind of threat, but civilian cargo vessels are not, Hinz said. "It becomes very, very difficult, or impossible, to defend against them," he said.

This creates a different kind of headache for the U.S. military. Safeguarding every commercial vessel moving through the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait in and out of the Red Sea would prove a nightmare, yet if more civilian ships come under attack, Washington may find it harder and harder to resist pressure to act, Hinz argued.

"Ensuring global freedom of navigation is a core interest of the United States—of the West in general—but especially of the United States," said Hinz.

What Will Happen Next?

This remains to be seen, but experts broadly expect this type of attack to continue, possibly in larger numbers.

"It's possible, perhaps even likely, that we're going to see a continuation or an increase in these kind of attacks because the Houthis are just an actor that is very, very difficult to deter," Hinz said.

In this scenario, the U.S. will likely have two options, said Freer. It could bring in more warships to shield commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and bolster its presence in the region.

After Hamas' early October attacks on Israel, the U.S. transferred its USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, joining the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group. The USS Carney arrived in the region days after the Hamas attacks in the latter strike group "in order to deter any actor seeking to escalate the situation or widen this war," CENTCOM said at the time.

The U.S. could also call on its allies to move resources to the region, Freer said.

The U.K.'s Royal Navy has already sent one of its destroyers, the HMS Diamond, to the region. The warship will "conduct operations to ensure freedom of navigation in the region, reassure merchant vessels and ensure the safe flow of trade," the British government said on November 30.

The U.S. could also launch missile strikes on Houthi sites, analysts suggest. But the U.S., and, indeed, Iran, are likely to want to steer clear of this type of escalation if possible, experts say.

It is important to note that many analysts describe the U.S. Navy as overstretched, and to boost its vessels around the Red Sea would incur a cost elsewhere. Despite this, however, "if you have the Houthis targeting one of the most important waterways of the globe, at one point, it will become a priority," Hinz said.

A lot remains to be seen. "We haven't had this kind of naval warfare for a long time, Hinz said. "It's very, very difficult to know how everything will play out in practice."