What Trump's Gamble on Putin Could Mean for China

Former U.S. President Richard Nixon famously reconciled with China's Communist leader Mao Zedong in a process that shut out the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War and deepened a Sino-Soviet split.

U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh this week, aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine, have brought speculation that President Donald Trump could be orchestrating a "reverse Nixon" that might pull Russia away from China—which America has made clear it sees as its biggest long-term adversary.

But dividing Moscow and Beijing would prove a mammoth task, experts on the subject say.

Imperial Scars

Nixon, advised by Henry Kissinger, capitalized on existing fractures between leaders in China and Russia, created by ideological differences and territorial skirmishes. Today, the neighbors are self-described "no limits" partners, with the former accused by critics of aiding the latter by offsetting its losses in oil and gas sales to Europe, and by not curbing the flow of military-use materials that end up on the battlefields in Ukraine.

The quasi-alliance constructed in over a decade by the personal connections between President Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is borne out by record-high trade volumes and mutual political support. China has refused to label Russia's invasion as such and has censored anti-war sentiment at home.

Yet there are signs that not all in Russia are completely comfortable with what may be becoming an imbalanced relationship.

Xi may be frustrating Putin by holding out for more favorable terms on a major natural gas pipeline to China, a project that could secure Russian energy exports for decades. Meanwhile, in China's increasingly insular online environment, Chinese nationalists are openly complaining about the 19th century loss of territory in what is now Russia's Far East.

"I do believe there is a possibility of the United States peeling Moscow away from Beijing. Moscow and Washington share a distrust of Beijing. Beijing has territorial designs on Russia—the United States does not," said Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks, a China-focused analytics firm in New York.

Although highly unlikely to be the primary driver behind the latest U.S.-Russia opening, it represents "the most positive potential outcome," Stone Fish told Newsweek. "There is no question China poses a greater threat to American interests than Russia does. The problem is, Russia poses a greater threat to European interests than China does."

Risky Bet

Trump appears to be leaning further and faster toward Putin than many analysts had expected. This week, he called President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator," in a sign that he was prepared to alienate Ukraine and its supporters for his rapprochement.

The American and Russian leaders are expected to meet to continue the ceasefire talks initiated by their top diplomats this month. It is unclear what Russia will demand in exchange for halting its offensive in Ukraine, but the list of expected concessions could be long.

Sanctions relief for Russia's banking and energy sectors, a security buffer that cuts off eastern Ukraine, or reversing Putin's ostracism from West-led international fora all would cause significant whiplash in European capitals after three years of war.

Kyiv, currently absent from the discussions, has not shifted from the position that the return of all Ukrainian territory seized by Russia is a precondition for any peace deal. U.S. officials say it is an unlikely outcome, but they have floated the idea of inviting peacekeepers from China and elsewhere.

China has been perhaps the biggest beneficiary of cheaper Russian energy in recent years, meaning a U-turn on Russian oil and gas sanctions could shake up global markets or at the very least offer the Kremlin more leverage. That Putin will share Trump's transactional view of geopolitics may be a gamble, but the overtures will give Beijing pause.

"There is always this psychological uncertainty that Moscow might abandon them and try to make a deal with the Americans, but I don't think it's strong," said Michal Bogusz, an analyst at the Center for Eastern Studies think tank in Warsaw.

"The Russian-Chinese alliance is a stable and solid relationship that has strong roots in the converging perceptions of their ruling elites and their strategic interests. Possible actions by the United States aimed at loosening it and distancing Moscow from Beijing are bound to fail," Bogusz told Newsweek.

Beijing's Win-Win

A month into his second presidency, Trump has renewed his hard line against China, appointing hawks in his cabinet and threatening to escalate the trade war with tariffs and market restrictions.

In Europe, however, Trump's assertive approach to dealings with the EU and NATO present Beijing with an opening to offer itself as the only viable alternative, economically and for stable global governance. The narrative will require a sharp about-face in Brussels after recent transatlantic alignment with the administration of former U.S. President Joe Biden.

Xi's main goal will be to win back an increasingly China-skeptic European Union, said Bogusz. "But they will not push too hard, at least not now. They don't want to make the Americans think twice. The golden rule of politics is 'never interrupt your enemy when he makes a mistake.'"

Chinese involvement in the eventual rebuilding of Ukraine, once a non-starter for Brussels, could become a no-brainer for Kyiv, which has been tolerant of China's fence-sitting on the conflict from the start. Such a result would only increase Beijing's rising prominence in the Global South.

Half the world away in the Pacific, where U.S. treaty allies such as Japan have linked Ukraine's security with their own, leaders might see a thawing of U.S.-Russia ties as coming at Kyiv's expense, just as Washington's strategic pivot to Beijing did to Taipei in 1979.

"The U.S.-Russia detente leaves China with more options and potential opportunities, along with some limited worries at this stage," said Paul Jones, a research fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C., and a former U.S. envoy in Europe and Asia.

"Sudden improvements in U.S.-Russia relations raise questions about U.S. credibility among its allies, which China would like to exploit, both in Europe and Asia," Jones told Newsweek. "China may also be encouraged that it too could gain significant concessions on its core interests, such as Taiwan, in direct negotiations with the U.S."

Liu Pengyu, the Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington, D.C., said: "We are glad to see all efforts committed to peace, including what has been agreed on peace talks by the U.S. and Russia. In the meanwhile, we hope all parties concerned and stakeholders will take part in the peace talk process at an appropriate time."

"Cooperation between China and Russia does not target any third party and will not be affected by any factor from any third party," Liu told Newsweek.

The White House and Russia's Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.