Vivek Ramaswamy's Chances of Winning in Ohio, According to Polls

Biotech entrepreneur and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has officially entered the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial race, and polls suggest he is the frontrunner.

Why It Matters

Ramaswamy announced his bid on Monday after departing as co-leader of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) last month. He enters a competitive GOP primary to replace Republican Governor Mike DeWine, 78, a seasoned center-right leader who is term-limited.

Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost launched his campaign in January, and is expected to be Ramaswamy's main opponent for the GOP nomination. Heather Hill, a Black entrepreneur from Appalachia, and Jeremiah Workman, a retired U.S. Marine staff sergeant from Union County, are also running, while Lieutenant Governor Jim Tressel, a former college football coach, hasn't ruled out joining the race, per local reports.

A former lieutenant governor, Jon Husted, was expected to be the frontrunner until he was appointed to Vice President JD Vance's open Senate seat in January.

On the Democratic side, Dr. Amy Acton, the former state health director who guided Ohio through the early COVID-19 response, is running.

Candidates will compete in a once-bellwether state that has leaned solidly Republican in recent years, with Trump winning it three times by over eight points. The GOP also controls every statewide executive office, holds a majority on the Ohio Supreme Court, and dominates both legislative chambers.

What to Know

While no polls have been conducted since Ramaswamy launched his bid on Monday, previous surveys have shown that Ramaswamy is the frontrunner in the race for the Ohio governorship.

For example, according to a poll conducted by National Public Affairs between February 2 and 5 among 602 likely Republican primary voters, Ramaswamy led the ballot with 46 percent to Yost's 18 percent, with 34 percent undecided.

The poll, funded by Yost's campaign, shows that Yost's support rises to 30 percent on an informed ballot—when survey respondents are provided with more background information on the candidates—while Ramaswamy's drops to 31 percent, with 36 percent undecided. Yost's lead expands to 20 points if paired with a Trump endorsement, but Trump backed Ramaswamy in a post on Truth Social on Monday, calling him "something special."

The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted by WPA Intelligence between January 28 and 30 among 600 likely Republican primary voters gave Ramaswamy another commanding lead over his rivals, with 57 percent support compared to Yost's 26 percent. WPAI's poll shows Ramaswamy leading among voters most familiar with both him and Yost, securing 72 percent to Yost's 20 percent, with only 3 percent undecided. The firm also found that a Trump endorsement could give Ramaswamy a 10-point boost, likely securing the nomination. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

A survey conducted by Trump's pollsters, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, published on January 28, found that Ramaswamy has over 52 percent support among Republican primary voters, to Yost's 18 percent, meaning he leads the Ohio Attorney General by 34 points.

A memo from the firm also said that Ramaswamy has a 65 percent favorability rating compared to 9 percent unfavorable, which beats Yost, who has "a near identical number of Ohio [Republican primary voters]" and a favorability of 51 percent.

"Among an electorate where President Trump and Vice President Vance are universally beloved, America First candidate Ramaswamy is undoubtedly the frontrunner to win the GOP nomination," the firm wrote, citing the "overwhelmingly positive views of President Trump & VP Vance" of more than 90 percent favorability in the state.

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates surveyed 600 likely voters from January 26-27, 2025, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Amid his strong polling numbers, Ramaswamy has already attracted the endorsement of top Republicans in the state, Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague and Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Sprague previously launched a bid for Ohio governor, but dropped out at the beginning of the month amid rumors of Ramaswamy's run. He is now running for Ohio secretary of state.

If Ramaswamy secures victory, he would break the usual path to Ohio's governorship, which typically requires years of government experience. Instead, he would follow a Trump-like trajectory, transitioning directly from the business sector into high office.

This strategy has proven successful for figures like Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno, both political outsiders who won Senate races with Trump's backing in 2022 and 2024. However, Ramaswamy's campaign will be a test of whether the approach can work at the state level.

Ramaswamy, the son of Indian immigrant parents, was born in Cincinnati, Ohio. He reportedly owns a mansion in Upper Arlington, a city just northwest of Columbus, that he bought in 2021. He has an estimated net worth of at least $1.1 billion, according to Forbes.

What People Are Saying

Donald Trump said in a post on X: "VIVEK RAMASWAMY is running for Governor of the Great State of Ohio. I know him well, competed against him, and he is something SPECIAL. He's Young, Strong, and Smart! Vivek is also a very good person, who truly loves our Country. He will be a GREAT Governor of Ohio, will never let you down, and has my COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!"

Ramaswamy said at the rally announcing his candidacy at CTL Aerospace: "President Trump is reviving our conviction in America, we require a leader here at home who will revive our conviction in Ohio."

He added: "We will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where we embrace capitalism and meritocracy instead of apologizing for it, we will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country that takes a hatchet to red tape over regulation and bureaucracy.

"I will lead Ohio to be the top state in the country where patriots across America actually flock to instead of Florida and Texas, I will lead Ohio to be the state of excellence in America."

What Happens Next

Ohio voters will choose a new governor in 2026, and in the months ahead, Ramaswamy will focus on winning over conservative voters and securing key endorsements.