Putin Heads to Belarus Amid Fears Troops Could be Dragged Into Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin will today travel to Belarus for the first time in three years, with the strongman expected to lobby Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko to do more to help Moscow escape its quagmire in Ukraine.

Belarus has acted as a "co-belligerent"—as described by the Institute for the Study of War—in Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, providing Moscow with staging points for invading formations, airfields for missile and drone strikes, military bases for housing and training Russian troops, and hospitals to treat wounded Russian servicemembers.

Minsk has transferred 211 items of military equipment, including 122 T-72A main battle tanks, to Russia, plus more than 65,000 tons of ammunition.

Lukashenko is one of few leaders who have expressed support for Putin's invasion, though did acknowledge in May that the operation was "dragging on."

There is much speculation that Putin is trying to strong-arm Lukashenko into throwing his own troops into the conflict, leveraging Minsk's near total dependence on Moscow since the Kremlin helped Lukashenko suppress pro-democracy protests in 2020.

In October, Lukashenko announced a "regional grouping of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus" to counter "all kinds of scoundrels who are trying to drag us into a fight," alleging that Ukraine was planning attacks on Belarus in coordination with its Western partners.

The first Russian troops of the new grouping arrived days later. As many as 12,000 Russian troops are believed to be deployed on Belarusian territory, according to the Ukrainian Resistance Center.

An early December visit by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu—who traveled to Belarus again on Monday to accompany Putin—may have included a push for Lukashenko to join the invasion, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov said.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed such concerns as "groundless" and "stupid," Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Ukrainian officials have long accused Minsk of planning offensive operations across the joint border. Ukrainian border troops have spent months fortifying their positions, mining roads, and destroying bridges. A hypothetical Russo-Belarusian offensive might seek to take Kyiv or drive south into Western Ukraine, seeking to cut Western military supply routes to Kyiv.

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with his top commanders on Monday to discuss pressing issues including the situation at the border with Belarus. "The commanders noted the readiness of the defense forces to respond to any developments," a press release from his office said.

Putin 'more and more desperate'

Few expect Lukashenko to throw his forces into Ukraine. Experts note that the marshy and forested terrain along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border would pose the same problems for Belarusian units as they did for the Russian formations bogged down and destroyed there in the spring.

A recent ISW report said that the Belarusian military has likely been weakened by their logistical support for the Russian invasion and that there is scant enthusiasm among Belarusian units to face the same fate as their better-trained and better-equipped Russian counterparts who have suffered badly on Ukrainian battlefields.

Lukashenko may also be loath to risk the security forces that have kept him in power over the last two years, instrumental as they were in the violent suppression of the pro-democratic opposition forcing it underground. Any weakening of the security forces—either via casualties or internal tensions over fighting in Ukraine—would be a gift to opposition forces.

Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said Monday that Lukashenko's regime "is the weakest link in Putin's war machine. Without it, free Belarus would become the strongest sanction against Russia & the best help for Ukraine. That's why we must keep up the pressure & make sure that all Russian troops are withdrawn from our territory."

In Ukraine, the Belarusian threat has forced Kyiv to retain troops along the border rather than deploy them to the hottest portions of the front lines in the south and east of the country, where officials have warned Moscow is preparing a fresh offensive.

"We are concerned about such a possibility, especially on the eve of the first anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion into Ukraine," Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker and chair of the parliament's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek of potential Belarusian aggression.

"Putin will be desperately trying to produce to the Russian population some visibility of success after one year of war. At the same time, I believe that Lukashenko is smart enough to understand that direct participation of Belarus in war against Ukraine will have terrible consequences for him personally and for Belarus," Merezhko said.

"Putin will be putting maximum pressure on Lukashenko, but Lukashenko will resist as much as he can. To Lukashenko, Putin is becoming too toxic and he doesn't want to follow him and share his fate. Lukashenko perhaps thinks that compared to Putin, he looks better in the eyes of the civilized world," he continued.

"Putin is getting more and more desperate, and he might be putting more pressure on Lukashenko to make him participate directly," Merezhko said. "But Lukashenko understands that his power after recent protests is not stable. He might be afraid that Belarusian battalion fighting for Ukraine—the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment—might enter Belarusian territory and topple him."

"Lukashenko cares only about staying in power, and Putin—with his war against Ukraine—presents a danger to Lukashenko's reign."