Putin Regime's Reported Fractures Risk Making Him Look Weak: ISW

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Reported disputes within Vladimir Putin's inner circle threaten to make him look weak, according to a U.S. think tank.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) referred to a report in The Washington Post, citing U.S. intelligence, that the Russian leader had been confronted by someone close to him over his "extensive military shortcomings" during the war in Ukraine.

Other Western and Kremlin-affiliated officials have noted growing criticism of Putin's mishandling of the war and mobilization mistakes, the ISW said. Meanwhile, rumors of "fractures within Putin's inner circle" have also reached the pro-Kremlin milbloggers, who post unvarnished accounts about the war on their Telegram social media accounts.

Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member states at the Konstantin Palace presidential residence in Strelna, outside Saint Petersburg, on October 7, 2022. ALEXEY DANICHEV/Getty Images

This is "undermining the impression of strength and control that Putin has sought to portray throughout his reign," the ISW said.

It comes amid speculation from bloggers that there are now two factions within the Kremlin following criticism of Russian military command by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The think tank said the bloggers believe Kadyrov and Prigozhin are part of the faction which wants to pursue the war "regardless of cost." The other group comprises of government officials who want "to negotiate with the West to save their assets and residences in the West but are too afraid to confront Putin directly."

The presentation of fundamental disagreements and challenges to his decisions in Putin's inner circle, "even if quiet, within the Russian nationalist space risks depicting Putin as weak and not fully in control of his government," the ISW said. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.

Criticism of Putin among pro-Kremlin voices following retreats of his forces appears to be growing. Editorial director of the online journal Riddle Russia, Anton Barbashin, tweeted on Saturday that "their confidence that Putin knows what he is doing is diminishing even further."

"Either Putin responds or he risks further eroding his legitimacy among hawks in Russia," he said.

Putin suffered a further blow on Saturday following explosions on Kerch bridge which links Russia with Crimea. The blasts collapsed part of the road carriageway into the Kerch Strait below and set fire to fuel tankers on a train crossing the second railway span of the bridge.

Considered to be the crown jewel of Putin's infrastructure projects, the 12-mile bridge was a symbol of Russian occupation and a key supply route for Russian troops. Moscow has blamed Kyiv for the incident although there has been no direct claim of responsibility from the Ukrainian side.

About the writer

Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular the war started by Moscow. He also covers other areas of geopolitics including China. Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and well as English, knows Russian and French. You can get in touch with Brendan by emailing b.cole@newsweek.com or follow on him on his X account @brendanmarkcole.


Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more