Putin Faces Pressure To Go on Defensive Ahead of Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to be facing pressure from some of his own allies to pivot the invasion of Ukraine into a defensive operation as a counteroffensive by Kyiv becomes more likely.

According to analysis by researchers at the Washington D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Saturday, the efforts to recruit 400,000 conscripts into the Russian armed forces would only freeze the current front lines in Ukraine.

The ISW said Russia's military command was "likely attempting to convince" Putin of the reality of the war and get him to "turn to defensive operations." The comments reflect a growing feeling among experts that the conflict may be heading towards a crucial tipping point.

The think tank also referenced comments by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the paramilitary Wagner Group, who on April 21 said that Russia needs to "anchor itself in such a way that it is only possible to tear out [Russian forces from their positions] with the claws of the opponent."

It said: "Prigozhin's calls for strengthening Russian defenses in occupied territories and frequent discussions of the prospects of Ukrainian counteroffensives are notable as they indicate that he is trying to amplify the discussion in the Russian domestic information space."

In the past 14 months, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been dogged by setbacks due to strategic blunders, a lack of equipment and training, and an unexpectedly strong defense from Ukrainian forces.

According to Ukrainian military figures—which Newsweek has been unable to verify— more than 186,000 Russian personnel had been "liquidated" in fighting as of Sunday. As Russia quickly expanded the initial professional fighting force it had committed to the invasion in the early phases of the war, it increasingly relied on conscripts who may be less willing or able to fight.

The Russian military currently occupies territory south of the Dnipro River and in the eastern Donbas region but faces a renewed push by the Ukrainian military as the weather improves and fresh Western armaments arrive.

In recent days, Ukrainian forces have established positions along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River to the south of the city of Kherson. A push southward from Kherson would not only place Ukrainian troops closer to Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, but would also allow them to flank the Russian military from the west.

The ISW noted that the Russian armed forces have turned to conscripts to defend Crimea and "may be planning to prepare other resources to ensure that Russia can retain some lines once the potential Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates."

Ukrainian officials have said the peninsula is "already a battlefield" despite being well behind enemy lines in the south.

"Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov are likely sensitive to the threat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive but are likely continuing to send contract servicemen to reinforce senseless offensive operations at Putin's insistence," the ISW suggested.

The ISW said Putin "favors loyalty over competence" and this sentiment "likely prevents Shoigu and Gerasimov from focusing on setting optimal conditions for an efficient defense" by having to commit better-trained and more well-equipped troops to these skirmishes.

Earlier in April, Prigozhin said the Wagner Group had "handed over" control of its forces near Bakhmut to the Russian Defense Ministry, noting that "the enemy is not going anywhere." He admitted that a Russian offensive seemed "out of the question" against the encroaching Ukrainian forces.

After Prigozhin made public interventions that were highly critical of Kremlin strategy, the ISW said it believed Russia's military command had "partially repaired" its "strained relationship" with the Wagner Group founder, who was now "advocating for Russia to focus on holding the current frontlines rather than seeking more gains so that Russian forces can regain their combat effectiveness for later offensive operations."

Putin has appeared to shift blame for the military setbacks in Ukraine onto his advisers and generals, despite reportedly being intimately involved in on-the-ground decisions at the outset of the invasion.

Newsweek has approached the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.