🎙️ Voice is AI-generated. Inconsistencies may occur.
Vladimir Putin's decision to reshuffle the Russian military command comes as the Kremlin hopes to combat a "disorganized command structure" and "self-reinforcing failures" in the Russian campaign in Ukraine, according to a leading military think tank.
On Wednesday, the Russian defense ministry announced what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) called a "major reshuffle of the Russian command structure for the war in Ukraine."
The ministry said General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, would step up as theater commander, with three deputies working beneath him.
One of these deputies is Army General Sergei Surovikin, who was appointed theater commander just three months ago on October 8.
The defense ministry cited the changes as necessary because of the "broader scope of missions" in Ukraine, and a need for "closer coordination between military branches and services of the armed forces."
The public announcement of the appointment shows the Kremlin to be in the midst of a "major shift" in both war conduct and the defense ministry's role, according to the ISW.
It may precede a significant Russian offensive in the early months of 2023 that Putin "likely incorrectly" believes Russian forces can accomplish, the think tank said.
But Gerasimov is "unlikely to rapidly revitalize and reform Russia's conduct of the war in Ukraine to achieve Putin's maximalist objectives," the ISW argued, adding Gerasimov will head up a chain of command "plagued by endemic, persistent, and self-reinforcing failures that he largely set into motion in his initial role before the invasion of Ukraine."
However, the ISW identified a second element to the appointment, suggesting the Kremlin's political motive in seeking to weaken the influence of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who heads up the mercenary Wagner Group forces in Ukraine.
Prigozhin has begun to publicly criticize Moscow's war effort, and has "relentlessly promoted the Wagner Group" at the cost of the Russian defense ministry's reputation, the ISW said.
Most recently, Prigozhin's company announced Wagner forces had taken control of the Donetsk town of Soledar, and while a state media report initially acknowledged Prigozhin's statement, another article later published by state outlet Tass made no mention of the mercenaries fighting alongside Russian units.
The demotion of Surovikin, a "favorite of Prigozhin," may have been calculated to elevate the Russian military over the mercenaries and dampen criticism of Kremlin decisions, the ISW commented.
On Tuesday, Russian state media announced the appointment of Colonel General Alexander Lapin as Chief of the Main Staff of the Russian Ground Forces, although Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to confirm Lapin's new role.
Previously relieved of his command of the Central Military District, Lapin was a controversial choice who had been extensively criticised by Prigozhin following the Russian retreat from the Donetsk city of Lyman in the fall.
Lapin's reappearance "could be considered as Putin's move to counterbalance Prigozhin's influence" in the Kremlin, Dr Marina Miron of the Center for Military Ethics at King's College London told Newsweek on Tuesday.
General Lapin is "being used as a pawn in a more significant political struggle that is taking place between Putin and his hardliners," Miron argued, as the Russian leader contends with the open critique levelled at Russian military high command by Prigozhin.
About the writer
Ellie Cook is a Newsweek security and defense reporter based in London, U.K. Her work focuses largely on the Russia-Ukraine ... Read more