Putin Is Now Very Worried About Crimea

Russia is funneling "significant" resources into protecting its control of the annexed Crimean peninsula as Ukraine's counteroffensive makes further gains, according to the U.K. government.

Russia is putting "significant effort" into building defensive lines in rear areas in southern Ukraine, the British Defense Ministry said on Wednesday. Moscow is focusing on areas on the way to the Crimean peninsula, the U.K. government added.

Moscow's military command likely believes Kyiv's fighters are "capable of directly assaulting Crimea," the government department said in a daily intelligence update posted to social media.

The Kremlin has controlled Crimea since 2014, and Kyiv has repeatedly vowed to bring back Ukrainian rule of the annexed territory.

"By returning Crimea, we will restore peace," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on the first anniversary of all-out war in the country in February. "This is our land. Our people. Our history. We will return the Ukrainian flag to every corner of Ukraine."

If Ukrainian forces reached the currently-occupied southern cities of Melitopol or Berdyansk, "this would be a great Ukrainian victory as it would cut off the land bridge to Crimea," according to Frederik Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, in the Netherlands.

This would bring Crimea within range of Ukrainian weapons and "deal a severe blow to what remains of Russia's strategic gains in its war," he told Newsweek.

"But right now, Ukraine still must break through the deep layer of Russian static defenses and defeat any Russian mobile reinforcements that try to come to the rescue, all while keeping the VKS [Russian Aerospace Forces] as far away from its ground forces as possible," Mertens said.

Although it is early days, Ukraine could capture Crimea as early as the end of the summer, as long as Western military aid keeps flowing, former U.S. Army Europe Commander, Ben Hodges, told Newsweek.

Russia's authority over Crimea is felt "like a festering wound in Ukrainian society today," Rory Finnin, professor of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Cambridge, in the U.K., previously told Newsweek.

But experts warn that Crimea is likely a "red line" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, adding the loss of the peninsula could threaten his own position more than defeats in mainland Ukraine.

Crimea has also proved more divisive for some of Kyiv's Western backers compared to Ukrainian mainland operations.

Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive, thought to be in its third week, has seen Kyiv target areas of the frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine.

"Blue and yellow colors will be all over our south and all over our east," Zelensky said in a video address on Monday. "And the evil state has no such fortifications or reserves that will stop Ukraine."

"Intense fighting continues in sectors of southern Ukraine," the British Defense Ministry said on Wednesday, but Russia has been preparing for attacks with a set of "elaborate defences" on the way to Crimea.

Around 9 kilometers, or just over 5.5 miles, of defenses have been constructed 2 miles north of Armiansk, a town that is close to Crimea's border with the Kherson region, the British government said. An interactive map, produced by the Institute for the Study of War think tank and the Critical Threats Project, also shows Russian fortifications around Armiansk.

"These elaborate defences highlight the Russian command's assessment that Ukrainian forces are capable of directly assaulting Crimea," the British Defense Ministry said. "Russia continues to see maintaining control of the peninsula as a top political priority."

On June 14, Ukraine's military intelligence agency urged Crimea's residents to contribute to Kyiv's fight and push Russian forces from the peninsula.

"The return of Crimea to the control of Ukraine is inevitable," the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Directorate of Intelligence said in a statement.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry for comment via email.

Update on 06/21/23 at 9 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Frederik Mertens.