Putin, Zelensky Peace Deal Depends on Key Shift in War

Despite suggestions from both Ukrainian and Russian officials about a willingness to negotiate an end to the 10-month-long war in Ukraine, the likelihood of a peace settlement appears to be far off, according to experts who spoke with Newsweek.

"I think that the safest bet is to say that it will go on until one side is sort of forced out of the conflict in one way or another," Michael Kimmage, a history professor at the Catholic University of America, told Newsweek on his prediction of when peace may occur.

Kimmage's thoughts have been echoed by others, even as both countries have claimed recently that they are willing to talk.

On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with a Russian state TV outlet that he is "prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process."

However, days later, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said there could be no successful peace talks unless Ukraine accepts Russia's claimed annexation of the partially occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

On the other side, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has maintained he is unwilling to relinquish the territories that Russia annexed. And while Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spoke this week of holding a potential "peace summit" in February, he also said Russia would be invited only if it faces war crimes prosecution in an international court.

As such, the biggest obstacle to peace talks is that neither side seems willing to budge on the territories.

"In my view, neither Putin nor Zelensky is really interested in peace talks because they each think that they can defeat the other," Mark N. Katz, a professor at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek.

Katz continued, "Just stating their willingness to reach peace, though, is intended to demonstrate to the outside world—especially the West—that they are being 'reasonable' while the conditions that the other one is calling for are 'unreasonable.'"

William Reno, a professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, feels "Ukraine's talk of negotiations at this stage is part of managing this war's political narrative."

Reno told Newsweek that he thinks "Zelensky realizes U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine has limits. He has to speak to concerns among legislators in the U.S. and governments in Europe that Ukraine is open to some sort of negotiated settlement that most pragmatic political leaders see as inevitable at some point."

As for Russia's talk of negotiations, Reno said it is likely a strategy to divide Ukraine's supporters.

"NATO has 30 members, each with different thresholds of risk and domestic political support for assisting Ukraine," Reno said. "Talk of a negotiated settlement lends support to those who are less inclined to provide Ukraine with resources and political backing."

Reno believes the war will eventually end with a negotiated settlement because "Ukraine cannot defeat a nuclear-armed Russia," and "Russia is not capable of seizing and occupying all or a large part of Ukraine."

Robert David English, a former Pentagon analyst and current associate professor at the University of Southern California, described some possible outcomes of an eventual agreement.

"Negotiations to end a war are always devilishly difficult. A negotiated settlement isn't even possible until both sides believe that they can't gain much more by continuing to fight, meaning only when both sides are nearing exhaustion," English told Newsweek.

"My guess for a final settlement? Russia keeps Crimea for now, but agrees to an internationally supervised plebiscite at some future point," English said. "Meanwhile, Russia retreats from much of the territory it's taken in the Donbas region, but holds on to a band in the east as a buffer between it and Ukraine's Western-backed army."

English also noted that war crimes tribunals and reparations could end up being "sticking points" during peace talks.

Kimmage feels Zelensky—emboldened by battlefield success—could try to gain control of Crimea and said Putin is in "a remarkable bind" due to military manpower issues and low munitions.

Zelensky is also somewhat limited in what he can negotiate, according to Katz. He said Zelensky "really cannot compromise" during any talks as long as the Ukrainian public supports regaining lost territory.

"If Ukrainian public opinion changed, he could back down," Katz said. "Putin, by contrast, may not be able to back down for fear [over] his ability to remain in power in Russia if he does. It will take Putin being ousted for someone else to come to power, blame Putin for everything that has gone wrong, and make the compromises that Putin can't."

As for how long it could take for the two sides to agree on a negotiated settlement, Kimmage said: "We need to think in terms of years, not months."