Putin and Prigozhin's Deal 'May Be in Flux': ISW on Russia

Agreements between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin following the mercenaries' mutiny late in June could be "in flux," according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

On June 23 and 24, the Wagner Group's short-lived armed rebellion and march towards Moscow abruptly ended after it was announced Belarus had brokered a deal between the Kremlin and Prigozhin.

Under the terms of the deal, Prigozhin was to be exiled in Belarus, and Putin promised in a publicized address that Wagner mercenaries could "continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies, or to return to your family and friends."

"Whoever wants to, can go to Belarus," the Kremlin leader added. "The promise I made will be fulfilled."

However, Belarus' leader and long-time Putin ally, Alexander Lukashenko later said Prigozhin was not in Belarus, but in Russia's second city, St Petersburg. He also suggested Wagner forces had remained at their established bases rather than traveling to Belarus. Whether these are bases in Russia, Ukraine or both has not been revealed.

This went against "the public understanding that Wagner fighters should already be signing contracts with the Russian MoD [Ministry of Defense], going home to retirement, or moving to Belarus," the Washington-based ISW think tank said on Saturday.

One interview published on Friday on Telegram with a Wagner commander indicated that Wagner members "are still able to move about freely within Russia and associate with each other," the think tank said. The Wagner commander said the mercenaries were resting until early August, when they would relocate to Belarus.

Wagner recruits have not yet arrived at a designated site in Belarus, Minsk's Deputy Defense Minister Leonid Kasinsky said on Friday. Footage posted online by journalists, including the BBC's Russia editor, Steve Rosenberg, showed a disused base in Belarus intended for Wagner mercenaries, although the recruits were yet to appear.

The ISW has not seen any sign that "Russian authorities are exiling or detaining Wagner commanders or fighters who participated in the rebellion."

"The status of the deal between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin is unclear, and the deal may be in flux," the ISW said.

As the Wagner mercenaries marched towards the Russian capital, Putin called the mutineers' actions a "betrayal," adding: "Exorbitant ambitions and personal interests led to treason."

"The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against his comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it," Putin said.

But Putin has still allowed both Wagner mercenaries and Prigozhin himself "to operate and potentially pose a threat to his regime," the ISW said.