Wagner Mutiny Will Invite Strikes at Russia's 'Sore Spots': Lukashenko

Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko warned on Tuesday that citizens in Russia need to "cool down" as the country recovers from a 24-hour mutiny led by the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) over the weekend.

"This is my message to Russian flag-wavers and turbo-patriots," Lukashenko said, according to the state-owned Belarusian news site BelTa. "There is no need to imprison anyone, there is no need to shoot anyone. We need to cool down and turn this page."

Lukashenko's message followed a few hours after the Belarusian leader confirmed that Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had arrived in his country as part of the negotiations brokered to deescalate Prigozhin's brief march toward Moscow on Saturday. Prigozhin, 62, has said that the armed conflict was a protest of the Russian military's leadership in the war in Ukraine and was not intended to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Lukashenko, who is a close ally of Putin, the immediate aftermath of Wagner's rebellion "is only the beginning" of turbulent times for Russia, and told citizens on Tuesday to "assume the worse" awaits ahead.

"Having seen this, the West will also draw certain conclusions, and there will be a lesson for them," he said. "They will coordinate their work, concentrate and strike at the most sore spots. We need, as Putin said yesterday, the unity of our society. Therefore, times are not easy."

President Joe Biden told reporters from the White House on Monday that the U.S. and its allies had nothing to do with Prigozhin's mutiny, and said that it was "still too early" to know how the situation may unfold for Russia, reported CNN.

"The ultimate outcome of all this remains to be seen, but no matter what comes next I will keep making sure that our allies and our partners are closely aligned in how we are reading and responding to the situation," the president added.

Still, experts have weighed in that the Wagner PMC's direct challenge of the Russian military is likely a threat to Putin's ability to hold control in Russia. The Russian leader acknowledged during a speech on Tuesday that actions from the Kremlin's law enforcement agencies "saved our homeland from turmoil, and actually stopped civil war," according to a report from the Russian-owned news site TASS.

Several analysts told Newsweek on Tuesday that Ukraine could also take advantage of the chaos in Moscow as Kyiv continues its counteroffensive against Russia's invasion.

"The uprising gives Ukraine a big strategic and psychological boost," said Guy McCardle, managing editor of Special Operations Forces Report. "It's like being a boxer and having your opponent struggling on the ropes: Time to go in for the knockout."

According to Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, it is also possible that Russian troops fighting along the front lines against Kyiv "might want to stop fighting—as they saw Wagner forces do."

"We don't seem to be near a general collapse yet, but this is something that Moscow does have to be concerned about," Katz told Newsweek.

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) also announced on Tuesday that the criminal case against Prigozhin had been dropped, reported TASS, saying that the Wagner forces "ceased their actions directly aimed at committing the crime" on Saturday. Prigozhin has not made a public appearance since exiling to Belarus.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.