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The elections are one week away. There is an enormous amount at stake. Republicans seem to be gaining ground in a number of key races and the generic congressional ballot has them now up by a healthy margin. Not only is control of Congress at stake now, but there are some vital contests that actually bear directly on the 2024 presidential race that are at stake as well.
Democrats and independents who care about our democracy cannot afford to forget about the following:
2 key issues—fight crime with gun control. Independent woman voters in swing states are key. Republicans are using the issue of crime to great advantage in all races and putting Democrats on the defensive. But as a recent Emerson College Polling/Leadership Now report showed, independent woman care far more about gun control than the general issue of crime. Democrats are pushing back on the crime issue with multiple arguments—Republicans won't strongly condemn what happened on Jan. 6, therefore they don't really support the police, and are undermining the integrity of the FBI.
But let's not forget how Democrats should be hitting back—with force that controlling guns is critical to controlling crime and Republicans simply will not support gun control. This is the only argument against crime than lands with independent women. They will decide swing elections. This issue resounds as heavily as abortion. Democrats seem to have forgotten this.
0 reform—The Supreme Court may give state legislatures even more power so don't rely on congressional election reform. Don't forget that reform of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, if it passes, by no means fully protects the country from a legitimate election being overturned by election-denying Republicans. It is helpful reform, but leaves plenty of room for mischief by congressional Republicans. Moreover, it may well be struck down depending on how the Supreme Court decides the North Carolina case that presents the question of the validity of the independent state legislature theory, which could ultimately enable state legislatures to have full control not subject to court review or congressional mandate as to the selection of presidential electors.
2 key state legislatures to flip—State legislative races will determine abortion, guns, and American democracy. Let's not forget down ballot state legislature races matter, and they really matter in swing states. There are two Republican-controlled state legislatures that can be flipped this election cycle. These legislatures are not only critical to state action on abortion and gun control, they are pivotal in making sure election deniers are not in control in deciding the presidency in 2024. In Arizona and Michigan, both of which can be flipped in November to Democratic control, the legislature elected in two weeks will still be in session when those legislatures send their Electoral College slate to Congress after the 2024 presidential election. Those states will be pivotal, and our democracy faces an existential threat if these legislatures are in the hands of Republican election deniers.
2 state House delegations to flip—flipping Alaska and North Carolina congressional delegations. Let's not forget what the intention will be of election deniers in 2024 in terms of the scenario they most likely pursue—to create enough doubt about what electors from key swing states are to be certified so that Congress is deadlocked on certification and the election is thrown into the House of Representatives, where Republicans control the majority of state delegations, on a delegation-by-delegation vote.
Today, that Republican delegation majority would be 27 with 23 tied or controlled by Democrats. Thanks to Sarah Palin's candidacy Alaska's seat may go to a Democrat. To bring down the Republican House delegation count to 25 and less than a majority, one more state must flip to non-Republican control.
There are six other states that are only one House member away from an even split between Democrats and Republicans. But none of them look within reach. North Carolina, however, the very state whose election map the Supreme Court case is reviewing, which today stands at eight Republican House members to five Democrats, actually might end up with a 7-7 split. If the Democrats can take one newly created seat, hold a tight race that the Democrats currently control, and flip a Republican controlled seat with an extremist newcomer running, they could do it. That math would have to hold in the 2024 election, but incumbency matters, and hopefully that is a better year for the Democrats.
The bottom line:
—2 related issues of crime and gun control—the Democrats must go all out on gun control.
—0 reform is what you get if it comes to the Electoral Count Act versus the independent state legislature theory, and the Supreme Court knocks down the former in asserting the latter.
—2 state legislatures are critical to flip in 2022 to protect the 2024 election.
—2 House delegations are critical to flip to move toward closing the election deniers' most direct path to stealing an election in 2024.
Remember that in November 2022, 2-0-2-2 is what is at stake.
Tom Rogers is an editor-at-large for Newsweek, the founder of CNBC and a CNBC contributor. He also established MSNBC and is the former CEO of TiVo. Currently, executive chair of Engine Gaming & Media, and a member of Keep Our Republic, an organization dedicated to preserving the nation's democracy.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
