What Delays to Scalise's Speaker Nomination May Mean for Israel and Ukraine

Until the House of Representatives chooses a new Speaker, the U.S. will be limited in its ability to provide sustained financial support to the Israel and Ukraine war efforts, and right now, there's no telling how long the Speaker vacancy may endure.

House Republicans moved closer to filling the position following a closed-door meeting on Wednesday to decide on a replacement for ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy during which Congressman Steve Scalise of Louisiana overcame Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio in a 113-99 vote.

However, the issue is far from settled. If 217 of the 221 House Republicans cannot agree on backing Scalise, the U.S. could witness something akin to the historic 15 rounds of voting that McCarthy endured in January to win the gavel. Some members have already indicated they plan to vote for Jordan regardless.

Such a situation could make it harder for the U.S. to support America's allies in Europe and the Middle East.

"Without there being a Speaker, without Congress being able to pass legislation expeditiously, this is going to make other countries much more concerned, especially Israel, but it's the same for Ukraine," Jordan Tama, a foreign policy and global security professor at American University, told Newsweek.

While some progressives have been reticent to support the Israeli government, broadly viewing it as the perpetrator of injustice against Palestinians, most in the Democratic party have expressed support for Israel following the attacks.

Similarly, while an even larger section of conservatives opposes providing financial support to Ukraine, seeing the situation as an unworthy investment, a majority of elected Republicans support its campaign against Russia.

President Joe Biden has called on Congress to provide financial support to both countries. If votes were held in both chambers, it's likely that both aid packages would pass. However, like McCarthy, Scalise could be hesitant to call a vote on aid to Ukraine.

While the Louisana Republican has supported aid for Ukraine in past votes, he has not been vocal about the issue in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Jordan, who has voted against aid for Ukraine, campaigned for Speaker on the premise that "the most pressing issue on Americans' minds is not Ukraine. It is the border situation and crime on the streets." His supporters, whom Scalise will have to sway, hold similar positions.

Both men have, however, been vocal in their support for Israel. Some advocates of both Israel and Ukraine, including the White House, have suggested coupling the two countries' aid packages together into one vote, but a number of Republicans, including those who support both efforts, have shot down the idea.

"They're both needed. I wouldn't want to connect one to the other," Republican Congressman Don Bacon of Nebraska, told NBC News on Tuesday. "I support both, but to hold one hostage for the other wouldn't be right."

Foreign policy expert Tama said that failure to provide consistent support to both countries could prove costly to America's standing within the international community. How the U.S. responds to these situations could shape perceptions "for some time to come," Tama said, because countries watch how America responds to crises to predict how it could respond in the future.

If other countries can trust the U.S. as a partner, they're less likely to seek alliances elsewhere, Tama said. Similarly, if the U.S. does not act against an aggressor, American adversaries have reason to believe the country may not try to check their decisions in the future. How China approaches its claim to Taiwan could be affected by how America approaches Russia's encroachment of Ukraine, Tama said.

The dysfunction surrounding the Speakership will likely have little international impact if the matter does not affect America's ability to respond to efforts abroad, Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, said.

However, if America cedes its role as a defender of democracy and post-World War II international norms, perceptions of the nation's standing in the world could begin to wean, reshaping the international order.

"I don't believe the perception [surrounding the Speakership] ties our hands on crucial matters of war and peace for the U.S.," O'Hanlon told Newsweek. "It may, however, give some succor to Putin as he hopes for an end to U.S. support for Ukraine."

"I think the key question now is whether MAGA Republicans and others cut off funding for Ukraine," he added. "That is the biggest issue on the table with the greatest potential implications for an ongoing conflict and for the sense of America's greater role in the world."

Update 10/11/23, 2:30 p.m. ET: This article was updated to reflect that Scalise won the Republican nomination for Speaker.