What Final Primary Election Results Tell us About the Midterms

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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On Tuesday, three states —Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island— held primary elections. In two of those states, Republican nominees who have never before held office won the candidacy for the November midterms.

In Rhode Island, first-time runner Ashley Kalus, a businessperson, defeated rival candidate Jonathan Riccitelli with 83.7 percent of the vote in the state gubernatorial race. In New Hampshire, retired U.S. Army brigadier general and conspiracy theorist Donald 'Don' Bolduc won against seasoned politician Chuck Morse, who was backed by Gov. Chris Sununu, by 1 percent in the Senate race.

The results are not isolated cases in the landscape of Republican midterms primaries. This year, GOP primaries across the country have seen surprising victories by candidates who have never held office before over weathered, more familiar nominees.

midterm primary elections
During the final primary night of the year, two Republican candidates who have never held office won against other GOP candidates. In this photo, a voter fills out their ballot at Bedford High School during... Scott Eisen/Getty Images

In Ohio, venture capitalist and author J. D. Vance won the GOP Senate nomination on May 3 with the backing of former President Donald Trump. He will face Democratic candidate Tim Ryan in November. In Oregon, Jo Rae Perkins won the Senate GOP nomination on May 17 after a first unsuccessful attempt in 2020, and is now set to face Democrat Ron Wyden.

In Pennsylvania, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz is facing Democrat nominee John Fetterman in a Senate race that has been marred by ugly commentary. Oz, backed by Trump, received 31.2 percent of the Republican vote on May 17.

Congressional Republican nominee Darius Mayfield ran uncontested at the primary in New Jersey on June 7.

In New Mexico, former KRQE meteorologist Mark Ronchetti won the party's gubernatorial primary with 58.4 percent of the vote against Rebecca Dow and Gregory Zanetti. Ronchetti, who had unsuccessfully run for Senate in 2020, will face Democrat nominee and incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham in November.

Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general who has the backing of Trump, won the Nevada Senate primary with 55.7 percent of Republican vote.

In Arizona, Kari Lake, a Trump-backed former local television news star, won the gubernatorial primary against rival GOP candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, who was supported by Gov. Doug Ducey.

In Washington, first-time runner motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley won the Republican primary to run for the state's Senate seat. Smiley, who is strongly anti-abortion rights but has declared her disagreement with Lindsey Graham's recent 15-week abortion ban, will face Democrat Senator Patty Murray at the midterms.

In Wisconsin, Trump-endorsed construction executive Tim Michels won the GOP gubernatorial primary with 47.2 percent of the vote and will face Democrat Tony Evers in November.

In Wyoming, Trump-backed attorney Harriet Hageman, previously a candidate for the 2018 gubernatorial election, defeated incumbent Liz Cheney by a landslide on August 16. She'll face Lynnette GreyBull in November.

But how are these first-time runners faring in polls?

Nate Silver, editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, wrote on Twitter that first-time candidates tend to underperform.

In Ohio, Vance is "slightly favored" to win the state's Senate election, according to FiveThirtyEight, which gives the GOP candidate a 69 percent chance of winning against Ryan's 31 percent.

In Oregon, Democratic candidate Wyden is "very likely" to win Oregon's Senate election with 99 percent chance of winning, according to the polling site, leaving Perkins far behind.

In Pennsylvania, Oz is expected to lose to Fetterman, who's estimated to have an 83 percent chance of winning the midterm election. In Nevada, FiveThirtyEight expects Laxalt to be defeated by Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, who has a 60 percent chance of winning the midterm against Laxalt's 40.

In Washington, Smiley is expected to lose against Murray, who FiveThirtyEight said has a 97 percent chance of being victorious.

In New Hampshire, Bolduc is estimated by FiveThirtyEight to have only a 19 percent chance of winning against Democrat Maggie Hassan.

Now to the House race. In Wyoming, Hageman is considered "very likely" to win Wyoming's at-large district against GreyBull, with over a 99 percent chance of defeating her Democratic rival.

In gubernatorial elections across the country, Democrat Grisham is expected to defeat Ronchetti in New Mexico, who's estimated to have only a 16 percent chance of winning.

In Arizona, Lake is estimated to have a 43 percent chance of winning against Democrat Katie Hobbs, who's still the favorite with a 57 percent chance of beating her rival. In Wisconsin, Michels is expected to lose to Democrat Evers, with an estimated chance of winning of only 32 percent according to FiveThirtyEight.

In Rhode Island, Kalus has an estimated 2 percent chance of winning against Daniel J. McKee.

Overall, polls would appear to show that first-time Republican candidates are indeed struggling to keep up with the vote expected to be gained by Democrat nominees.

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About the writer

Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property insurance market, local and national politics. She has previously extensively covered U.S. and European politics. Giulia joined Newsweek in 2022 from CGTN Europe and had previously worked at the European Central Bank. She is a graduate in Broadcast Journalism from Nottingham Trent University and holds a Bachelor's degree in Politics and International Relations from Università degli Studi di Cagliari, Italy. She speaks English, Italian, and a little French and Spanish. You can get in touch with Giulia by emailing: g.carbonaro@newsweek.com.

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Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on the U.S. economy, housing market, property ... Read more