Here Is What Gas Prices Will Look Like on Election Day

Gas prices have swung drastically to both ends of the spectrum over the last few years, with the average sitting below $2 per gallon during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 before leaping to above $5 as demand increased this summer and the war continued between Russia and Ukraine.

Voters have turned their eyes toward politicians, many of which are running for election in the midterms, and highlighted an array of topics they are most concerned about—from the economy to inflation, abortion and crime. As the Democrats try to maintain their majority vote in the Senate and the House, candidates have exchanged heated words during charged debates, and each side is pointing the finger at the other.

Amid the political battles, gas prices are often mentioned.

Voters Could See Conflicting Gas Prices on Election Day

Today, prices sit roughly in the middle of the spectrum at an average of $3.76 per gallon, according to AAA.

They are on the decline from this summer when the average peaked at more than $5 per gallon and some states along the West Coast saw prices as high as nearly $6.50 per gallon. The prices tremored slightly after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) decision to cut oil production by up to 2 million earlier this month but have since started to fall.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, predicts the prices will continue to fall in several key swing states by as much as 35 cents per gallon, but other swing states could see an increase. However, he stressed the prices have almost nothing to do with politics.

Election Day itself will see little change in prices from the day prior, with De Haan predicting a 1- or 2-cent change. But in the weeks leading up to November 8, several important swing states near the West Coast and in the Great Lakes region could see a steep decrease of 15 to 35 cents per gallon, while other states will see prices inch up.

De Haan told Newsweek that swing states, where gas prices trend higher than the national average, like Nevada, Arizona and Oregon, could see prices dip to as much as 15 to 35 cents per gallon. That means Oregon and Nevada would likely fall to below $5 per gallon and Arizona could fall to below $4 per gallon.

Swing states in the Great Lakes region, such as Wisconsin and Ohio, also could see a dip. De Haan projects the decrease to be in the 15- to 30-cent range. If the predicted decrease occurs in its fullest extent, both states would see prices in the $3.20 range.

As for other swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina and New York, voters won't be so lucky.

De Haan predicts states in the south, east and northeast––which typically trend lower for gas prices––could see a 5- to 10-cent increase in the weeks before Election Day. That would put New York in $3.80 range per gallon and the other states below that.

"The price of oil is going back up again, and so those areas where prices are lower are more susceptible to daily fluctuations in price, whereas the West Coast and Great Lakes prices skyrocketed, so there's a lot of room for prices to come down," De Haan said.

"It Takes Years" for Politicians To Change Oil Markets

However, De Haan stressed current politics have almost nothing to do with determining where the prices fall.

"The government really only has policy that can influence the future of oil and gasoline prices," De Haan told Newsweek. "A lot of Americans heading into the election have no idea of the interaction and how long it takes. A lot of Americans are blaming [President Joe] Biden for the current price, but it takes years for policies to really form the future of oil markets."

Although De Haan said Biden has contributed to oil companies' resistance to increase production by targeting oil companies in his rhetoric, he said most of the reasoning behind the higher prices is still from COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war.

Gas Prices Change With The Seasons

Americans tend to speculate that as Election Day looms closer, gas prices are lowering because politicians in power want to keep their seats. However, De Haan said that's not true, and seasonality has everything to do with the change.

"Gas prices are declining because demand is decreasing," De Haan said. "Everyone says 'oh look at gas prices going down before the election, they'll go up after the election.' Not necessarily. People take less vacations [in the late fall]. Gas prices fall in the fall and spring forward in the spring. People like to think politics influence everything. No. The natural direction of seasonality is influencing prices. If the elections were in the spring, you would likely see prices rise."

Republicans and Democrats Blame Each Other

However, politicians are adopting a different rhetoric, blaming their opponents for the rise in prices.

In Nevada, prices average $5.01 according to AAA. Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt battle neck-and-neck for the U.S. Senate seat. Cortez Masto, the incumbent, credits her actions in holding oil companies accountable and accuses Laxalt, an attorney, of defending those same companies.

"Senator Cortez Masto has led efforts to hold Big Oil accountable for high gas prices, calling these companies out for sitting on leases and profiting instead of expanding our oil supply," Cortez Masto campaign spokesperson Sigalle Reshef told Newsweek in an email. "Meanwhile her opponent, Adam Laxalt, has defended the Big Oil corporations squeezing Nevadans at the pump while making millions at a DC law firm that represents them."

However, Laxalt adopts a different rhetoric, blaming Cortez Masto and Biden for adopting anti-energy policies.

"The average price of gas in Nevada is well above $5, and this is due to Joe Biden and Cortez Masto's Green New Deal, anti-energy policies," Laxalt's campaign press secretary Brian Freimuth told Newsweek in an email. "The Biden-Masto agenda has leased the fewest acres for drilling since WW2. When Adam is in the Senate, he'll fight to restart oil and gas leases and revive American energy independence to bring prices back down."

In Ohio, at $3.60 per gallon, gas prices are more than 10 cents lower than the national average. Ohio, a Great Lakes state, could see a decrease in that price by Election Day. However, voters are seeing a similar scenario play out. Democrat Tim Ryan, the incumbent, is battling Republican JD Vance, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, for the U.S. Senate seat. According to a Fox News report, the pair are tied in the polls.

Gas prices have been a fighting point between them as well, at least on Vance's side. Vance adopted a rhetoric familiar to Republicans––blaming Biden and those who align with him for the high prices.

"There is no one else to blame for the record-high gas prices that are devastating Ohioans other than Joe Biden and his extreme allies in Congress like Tim Ryan," Vance said in an article by Breitbart.

In the Tennessee Star, Ryan blamed the rise in gas prices on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war.

Who Will Benefit From High Prices?

Political strategists on both political sides anticipate gas prices to have an impact on Election Day.

PoliticalVIP Republican Consultant Jim Burton told Newsweek that the state of gas prices might be a good sign for Republicans in the midterms.

"Republicans are saying 'look, Democrats control this, this is what happened during the this time because of the policies they put in place,' and Democrats are like 'oh no, it's just the greedy oil folks,' and I think the Republican message resonates more with voters," Burton said. "They are like 'I wasn't paying that before, what's changed? Trump's not in office and the Democrats control everything, so I think that's whose problem it is.'"

Carly Cooperman, the CEO for Democrat political consulting firm Schoen Cooperman Research, said Democrats will hurt in elections if gas prices are still rising by November 8.

"The voters hold the president and the party in power responsible for the economy," she told Newsweek. "One of the strongest signs of the economy where voters feel things right in front of them are gas prices. When prices began dropping after they peaked in the summer, we saw Democrat ratings improving and Biden's approval improving. As gas prices started to spike again in the last few weeks, we have seen the opposite happen, even though there is only so much the president can do directly to impact gas prices."

De Haan: Candidates Know The Truth

De Haan believes politicians battling about gas prices know the truth that policies do little to affect the current price. Instead, the candidates are feeding into Americans' beliefs to polarize voters toward their campaign.

"I have to believe politicians know better and they are deliberately doing it because that's what politicians do," De Haan said. "They're trying to score political points."

De Haan admits in some cases, politics can play a part in gas prices, but mostly by lowering them. Governors have the power to waive a state's gas tax, and several have taken that action this year. Lawmakers waived gas taxes in Florida, Georgia, Connecticut, Maryland and New York and similar actions have been taken in many other states. Eventually, the gas tax expires and gas prices return to their full amount.