What to Know About Michigan's Democratic Primary: Delegates at Stake, Polling and What It Could Mean for Sanders and Biden

The next big electoral prize in the 2020 Democratic primary race is Michigan.

Voters in the Midwestern state will head to the polls on Tuesday, March 10, to weigh in on whom they want to see nominated. It will be one of the first primaries after Super Tuesday, which winnowed the field down to two candidates: Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

Sanders was considered an early favorite in Michigan after his shocking upset win there against Hillary Clinton in 2016. But Biden's 10-state victory lap on March 3 could help propel him to a first-place finish in the battleground state.

"Much like a lot of other places, the Biden campaign is surging here right now. They look like they're in a positive spot," Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist, told Newsweek.

While Michigan will help determine who will get the Democratic Party's nomination later this year, it's also expected to play a key role in the general election. President Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016 by a mere 10,704 votes, his slimmest margin of victory in any state.

"There's very few scenarios where a Democrat can be elected president without winning Michigan," Hemond said. "In terms of potential paths to the White House, the state is pretty crucial."

The first test in the state for the Democratic Party will be next week's primary. Here's what you need to know.

Delegates at Stake

There are 125 delegates at stake in the Michigan Democratic primary. It will be the biggest delegate haul in play on March 10, when voters in five other states—Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington—also head to the polls to pick the candidate they want to see nominated.

Delegates are awarded proportionally to candidates, based on the number of votes they receive. But Democrats who fail to capture at least 15 percent of the vote in the primary are not eligible to win any delegates being allocated by that state.

A total of 3,979 pledged delegates are available through the Democratic primary race. To win on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention, a candidate needs to have the support of a majority plus one: 1,991. As of Thursday morning, Biden was leading the delegate count with 595. Sanders was in second place with 528.

Polling

The latest statewide poll found Biden leading the Democratic field by nearly 7 percentage points. The former vice president had 29 percent support among likely primary voters. In second place was Sanders, who captured 22.5 percent. Rounding out the top three candidates was Michael Bloomberg, who dropped out of the race on Wednesday, with 10.5 percent support.

By a margin of 48 percent to 28 percent, Democratic voters in the poll said they were more concerned about which candidate could beat President Donald Trump than whether a candidate best aligns with their policy views.

The poll, released Wednesday by The Detroit News/WDIV-TV, surveyed 600 likely voters in the Democratic primary and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was mostly conducted before Super Tuesday, from February 28 to March 3.

Another recent poll found all top Democratic candidates beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup. The Quinnipiac University survey, released in late February, showed Trump trailing Biden by 4 points and Sanders by 5 points.

Biden vs. Sanders

Michigan is the first contest where Biden and Sanders will essentially be going head-to-head for votes. The Democratic primary race has largely become a two-person contest between Biden and Sanders after five candidates dropped their White House bids in the span of one week. The only other remaining candidate is Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard, but she's picked up just one delegate so far and is polling in the low single digits.

Sanders, 78, was initially viewed as a favorite in Michigan because of his narrow victory over Clinton in 2016. The victory was a turning point for the Sanders campaign, as it proved he could expand his base beyond young voters and liberals. Exit polls showed him winning big among noncollege whites in the state and with voters who were concerned about trade and the economy.

But Biden's surge since South Carolina spells trouble for the Sanders campaign. The former vice president dominated the Palmetto State, winning nearly 50 percent of the vote and proving his appeal among African American voters.

The former vice president, who is 77, carried that success into Super Tuesday, besting Sanders in 10 states. The results are still coming in, but The New York Times estimates that Biden will emerge as the winner and Sanders will be in second place, with 589 delegates to Biden's 670.

On Thursday, Biden received a key endorsement from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. She praised the former vice president as the "candidate we need to defeat Donald Trump in November" and said he's "been right there with us in the tough fights."

But Sanders could see a boost from Elizabeth Warren's exit from the race. The Massachusetts senator dropped her bid on Thursday after a disappointing Super Tuesday performance, which included a third-place finish in her home state. A Quinnipiac University poll from February found that 33 percent of her supporters would back Sanders as a second option.