How Republican Polls Look Ahead of Second Debate

Republican presidential candidates are set to take the stage for the second primary debate this week, and polls point to one holding a substantial lead over the rest of the pack.

The candidates will face off Wednesday evening at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. The debate marks the second time candidates will directly challenge each other following last month's forum in Milwaukee, in which candidates sparred over topics including abortion and aid for Ukraine.

Ahead of the second debate, all other candidates are trailing former President Donald Trump by a wide margin as conservative voters flock to support him for a potential 2024 rematch against President Joe Biden. Still, Trump has pledged he would not attend the second debate, instead planning an appearance in Michigan, where auto workers have been on strike—a potential sticking point among the GOP candidates.

An ABC News/Washington Post poll, which surveyed 474 voters from September 15-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, found Trump with the support of 54 percent of voters, while FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate finds him leading with an average of 55.4 percent of the vote.

The poll is in line with others that have found him with a 40-plus-point lead over his GOP opponents.

Despite facing several legal battles, polls have shown that Trump remains popular among the GOP electorate as voters view his treatment in the justice system as unfair. His wide support is forcing other candidates to strike a balance between support for the ex-president while also offering their own vision of conservative policies.

DeSantis Trails Trump by Nearly 40 Points

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who rose to prominence over his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and conservative social policies, has consistently placed second in recent polls. The ABC News/Washington Post poll found him securing support from 15 percent of Republican voters.

FiveThirtyEight's aggregate shows him averaging 13.5 percent in recent polls. DeSantis was once viewed as the Republican with the greatest chance of beating Trump, but his campaign has suffered several setbacks including fundraising difficulties and challenges at home.

Several Candidates Battle for Third Place

As each candidate seeks to have a breakthrough on Wednesday, several are battling for third place. While Vivek Ramaswamy or Nikki Haley received praise for their performance in the first debate, they continue to trail Trump and DeSantis.

Here is a look at the candidates battling for third place.

• Former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley placed third in the ABC News/Washington Post poll—winning support from 7 percent of voters. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate has her polling in fourth place, averaging support from 5.4 percent of voters.
• Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has distanced himself from Trump over the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, placed fourth in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Six percent of Republican voters said they would vote for him. He is averaging support from 4.6 percent of voters, according to FiveThirtyEight.
• Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy placed sixth in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 3 percent of voters saying they would vote for him in the primary election. However, FiveThirtyEight's aggregate found him averaging 6.3 percent.
• Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has made his criticisms of the former president a cornerstone of his campaign and has ran on more moderate social policies than most Republicans, also received 3 percent in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. However, he is averaging 2.8 in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate.
• South Carolina Senator Tim Scott received support from 4 percent of Republican voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, but FiveThirtyEight's aggregate shows him at 2.6 percent.

In a statement to Newsweek Monday afternoon, a Ramaswamy spokesperson said, "We are looking forward to this next debate for Vivek to continue to introduce himself to the American people."

Other long-shot candidates, such as former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Representative Will Hurd of Texas are averaging less than 1 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Newsweek reached out to the 2024 presidential campaigns via email for comment.

Update 09/25/2023, 5:15 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Ramaswamy's campaign.