What a Tucker Carlson Presidency Would Look Like

• On April 24 Fox News announced Tucker Carlson was leaving the network, sparking intense speculation about his future.
• The TV host would be "hard to dismiss" as a presidential candidate, according to some academics.
• His appeal could indicate the American right is "radicalizing even beyond Trump," and seeking "a new charismatic leader."
• But others told Newsweek a Carlson presidency would be "devastating for race relations."

The defenestration of Tucker Carlson was, to the outside world at least, as sudden as it was brutal. On 24 April Fox News announced it had "agreed to part ways" with its star presenter, who it thanked "for his service to the network as a host."

Carlson's departure immediately triggered speculation about what the right-wing firebrand—who in 2021 Time Magazine said "may be the most powerful conservative in America"— would do next.

It didn't take long for offers of employment to fly Carlson's way, including from Russian state TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, nicknamed "Putin's Voice" for his rigidly pro-Kremlin line, and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell.

But others put forward a more intriguing, and potentially influential, suggestion. Carlson could step beyond his career as a pundit and run for the White House himself. He was, according to former GOP strategist Rick Wilson, "the only Republican who presents a mortal threat to Donald Trump in a primary."

Could Carlson Run?

Carlson has previously denied having any interest in the presidency, telling one interviewer, in July 2022, that "I don't want power," and "I have zero ambition, not just politically but in life."

Of course, at the time Carlson was working for Fox News, and unemployment can have a curious impact on career decisions. Should Carlson decide to bid for the Republican Party nomination he would immediately become a credible contender according to Thomas Gift, who heads up the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London.

Speaking to Newsweek, Gift said: "It's hard to dismiss speculation that Tucker Carlson would be a viable presidential candidate. Whether he could topple Trump in the primaries, or win a general election, is a different question.

"But he certainly has all three things that candidates need: name recognition, a devoted following, and finger on the pulse of where his party is at the moment. Add to that the fact that many rank-and-file Republicans see Carlson as a martyr right now, and he'd be firing on all cylinders heading into a GOP primary season where being a pariah is a net bonus."

Professor Charles Stewart III, a politics expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was more skeptical, telling Newsweek that Carlson lacks an established base, and would struggle to dethrone Trump.

He said: "As for his creditability in general, we have to assume that he would be playing in the Trump lane. So long as Trump is in the race, it's hard to see him challenging Trump. The main short-term effect would probably be to dethrone DeSantis for second place.

"A more political science answer is to point out that running for president takes a lot of work and prior preparation. Trump himself worked for years to make preparations, and even then, he had to get his sea legs.

"Running for president is different from being in front of a television camera doing commentary. It's hard to see Carlson breaking above 25% if he begins from a cold start."

Carlson's prospects were also played down by D. Roderick Kiewiet, a professor of political science at the California Institute of Technology, though with the caveat that "I have no ability to predict what American voters are likely to do."

In an interview with Newsweek, Kiewiet said: "Carlson is not a serious contender. It takes enormous effort and financing to gear up a presidential campaign, and I don't see how he could do that."

However, he did add that "if someone in 2015 had suggested to me that Donald Trump would be elected president... I would have assumed they were out of their mind."

How Would Carlson Govern?

For starters, foreign policy could well be turned on its head.

After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed Congress in December, wearing his trademark green jacket and combat pants, Carlson branded him a "strip club" manager, who he accused of "humiliating" the "greatest country on Earth."

Previously he argued Ukrainians were "pawns" of a U.S. establishment whose ultimate goal is "regime change" in Moscow, and suggested Americans were being hypnotized to "hate" Russia.

These positions put Carlson in direct conflict with much of the traditional GOP foreign policy establishment, which remains firmly Atlanticist, committed to NATO and hostile to the Kremlin.

Summing up the tension, Gift said: "At the same time, Carlson might be even more unsettling to the Republican 'establishment' (to the extent that exists anymore) because, unlike Trump, he's perhaps even more independently minded on policy."

He added many American conservatives have been "radicalizing even beyond Trump," meaning "a new charismatic leader like Carlson shouldn't be underestimated."

In terms of domestic policy several of the experts Newsweek spoke to highlighted Carlson's positions on race, which they argued are significantly more radical than Trump's.

Madeline Peltz, deputy director of rapid response at Media Matters for America, described Carlson as "the main conduit for the 'great replacement' conspiracy theory into the Republican Party," after his departure from Fox News was announced.

Advocates of the great replacement theory believe liberals are using immigration to change American demographics, with a focus on reducing the proportion of the population that is of white European heritage. The theory has been linked with a number of far-right terrorist attacks, including the fatal shooting of 10 Black people in a Buffalo grocery store in May 2022.

During one of his shows, in April 2021, Carlson said: "I know that the left and all the little gatekeepers on Twitter become literally hysterical if you use the term 'replacement,' if you suggest that the Democratic Party is trying to replace the current electorate, the voters now casting ballots, with new people, more obedient voters from the Third World. But they become hysterical because that's what's happening actually. Let's just say it: that's true."

Carlson has repeatedly denied being racist, and there is no suggestion he has ever endorsed violence.

Professor Kenneth B. Nunn, an expert in racism at the University of Florida, told Newsweek a Carlson presidency would be "devastating for race relations."

He said: "Carlson is an open white nationalist and I think he would not shy away from exploiting racial divisions in a way that would only make them worse. Much as Trump did during his campaigns and presidency, but only worse."

Regarding other policy areas, he added: "I would expect domestic policy and international relations to take a step backwards, especially in regards to voting rights, police reform, sentencing reform, gun control and other like concerns."

Stewart III made a similar argument. He said: "Despite his dog whistles and other less subtle statements, Trump does seem to be comfortable with minority folks who fit within his comfort zone, especially with minority celebrities who might have their own followings. I don't know that Carlson has any comfort zone.

"So, I suspect that a presidency (or even candidacy) led by Carlson would see even rawer appeals to white voters and the definition of non-whites as the other."

However Kiewiet argued it would be "a mistake to characterize Carlson as hard right," and suggested "a significant number of government officials" have been effected by what the academic called "Trump Derangement Syndrome."

Referring to Carlson, he said: "His adamant opposition to Covid vaccines and even more adamant opposition to supporting Ukraine, stances shared by [Robert F.] Kennedy [Jr.], are expressions of primitive populism if anything. Also, Carlson has trafficked in some really weird stuff, like UFOs and cattle mutilations."

Newsweek contacted Tucker Carlson, via direct messages on Twitter and Facebook, requesting an interview or a written statement for this story. If either is provided, the article will be updated.