What's Next for Beto O'Rourke After Devastating Third Straight Loss?

The third time was not the charm for Beto O'Rourke, as the charismatic but flawed former Democratic wunderkind lost his bid to unseat Texas Governor Greg Abbott, throwing his political future into question.

Facing Republican headwinds, O'Rourke lost with 43.8% of the vote to Abbott's 54.9%, according to The New York Times, a margin closely matching poll predictions, which had O'Rourke losing at 42.3% to Abbott's 52.7%, according to the polling aggregate site RealClearPolitics.

O'Rourke burst onto the national scene as a foil to Senator Ted Cruz, losing by only 2.5% in a race that drew the attention of national donors large and small. But O'Rourke stumbled badly in a short-lived run for president, bowing out and endorsing Joe Biden after early energy and fundraising fizzled out.

The former El Paso congressman was then hampered in the governor's race, not only by a national political climate that favored Republicans, but also by his own comments during a presidential debate that he would take away people's AR-15 semiautomatic rifles.

While O'Rourke will certainly take time before making decisions on his next move, Democrats are already speculating on what he will do next and whether he could run again in the future after three devastating, consecutive losses.

Representative Joaquin Castro told Newsweek that O'Rourke ran an energetic campaign that meant a lot to Texans, and still possesses a "bright future" in the state.

"Democrats across the state are grateful and indebted to Beto for bringing us as close to winning as we've been in a long time, and that soon won't be forgotten," he said. "In the coming years, if he wants to pursue office again, people will appreciate his efforts."

Ultimately, Castro said, O'Rourke was running in the most difficult political "weather" conditions for a candidate — a midterm election where your party's president is in office.

Abel Prado, the executive director of progressive organization Cambio Texas, texted O'Rourke on the eve of Election Day to tell him, "no matter what happens, we did everything we could, and then some," he told Newsweek.

O'Rourke responded, "That's the spirit, from the 956 to the 915," referring to the area codes for Laredo, Brownsville, and Harlingen, and 915, which is the area code in El Paso where he's from.

Prado said on one level O'Rourke will be fine, having married into a "very affluent family."

"It's not like he's going to have to be standing on the bread lines any time soon," he quipped.

But from a political insider perspective, Prado said O'Rourke "is sitting on enough data and digital infrastructure that he could probably open a digital firm, which I know his people have talked about."

O'Rourke launched Powered by People after he dropped out of the presidential race to focus on the 2022 presidential election, and the group concentrated on registering and turning out Texas voters. O'Rourke later launched a voter registration tool called Drive-to-You, which helped Texans register by sending volunteers to their house to help them.

"He could mine those donors for the rest of his life," Prado argued.

One O'Rourke staffer told Newsweek that they could see O'Rourke creating a vehicle to "jump into the gun control fight" or something else he feels would help create Democratic power in Texas.

They said that while some Democrats would like to see O'Rourke succeed Gilberto Hinojosa as Texas Democratic Party chair, they don't believe he has any interest in the position.

"No matter what, he'll take some time off, he'll think it through, but he's never going to leave the fight," the source said.

A senior O'Rourke staffer told Newsweek that for much of the election, they would come back to a scene from the final season of the popular HBO show Game of Thrones to explain the long odds they felt the campaign was up against.

In the show, Queen Daenerys Targaryen sent thousands of Dothraki warriors on their horses into the dark night to face the Night King's undead army. While the Dothraki host is one of the formidable armies in the world, it is nearly wiped out by the relentless mass of undead.

"My personal fear was we were up against a monster that was bigger than we realize it is," the source said of the electorate in Texas that has been heavily Republican for decades.

The special election win of Republican Mayra Flores in the 34th Congressional District also hurt O'Rourke's campaign, because Republicans began to spend more money in south Texas, the source said. Flores lost to incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez 52.7% to 44.3% on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press.

"I think that investment made it harder for Beto," the source continued, adding the Republicans are great at messaging, and "built a big propaganda machine" with TV ads touting that they were the party of "God, Family, and Country."

For that reason, Republican pushback in south Texas was "a bigger weight on Beto's work than it was last cycle," the source concluded.

Artemio Muñiz, the chair of the Texas Federation of Hispanic Republicans, said that he was intrigued from a purely political standpoint when O'Rourke began his race against Cruz, because O'Rourke was skateboarding at Whataburger and he appeared to take inspiration for his logo from the popular restaurant's logo.

But in the presidential race he felt O'Rourke "sold his soul" to the national Democratic Party brand.

"That's a big no-no in Texas," Muñiz said, adding that the takeaway should be if you're going to run in Texas, you have to respect the state's brand, not what New York and California donors want you to say.

"The rejection by Texans of the Democratic brand is important for Beto to understand if he ever plans to win in Texas," he stressed, adding that "you can't come out in Texas and say you're going to take our AR-15's — you have to embrace Texas values."

Victor Leal is the kind of Republican O'Rourke would have to win over in the future if he were ever to run again.

While he is a former Republican mayor of Muleshoe, Texas, he did not support Donald Trump, and his wife and sons are fans of O'Rourke. When O'Rourke visited Muleshoe this summer, he had lunch at Leal's Mexican Food Cafe, the family restaurant.

But Leal said O'Rourke lost because the race boiled down to basic issues like the economy and inflation. He has had to raise the menu prices in his restaurant three times because inflation has been driving up his costs.

Asked if O'Rourke could win in Texas, Leal noted that he already lost once during a blue wave year in 2018. He said O'Rourke could use his name recognition and the goodwill he has engendered in Texas to start his own foundation and become a kingmaker in the state, helping Democrats raise money.

But he doesn't see another race in the cards.

"I just don't see a path for Beto," he said. "At some point the donor base says, 'we reached in our pockets deeply three times for you, and it's time to move on.'"

Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, the president of NextGen America, which worked to help elect O'Rourke, is looking forward to what another term of Abbott as governor will mean. She cited the winter freeze that led to hundreds of deaths in 2021, and mass shootings like the one in Uvalde that left 19 children and two teachers dead.

"These are policy failures by our governor that cost people their lives," she told Newsweek, and she sees more fear and crushing disappointments ahead for Democrats and progressives in the state.

But despite O'Rourke's loss, Tzintzún Ramirez said she remains hopeful the state can still change sometime in the future.

"Let's not forget the birthplace of the modern civil rights movement was in the deep south," she said. "We have faced worse, and Texas is the biggest battleground, because those in charge look nothing like the state."

"We have the numbers to win," Ramirez added, "and we're not done organizing."