No Arrests One Month After Idaho Murders: When Does it Become A Cold Case?

The investigation into the fatal stabbing of four University of Idaho students reached the one-month mark on Tuesday, prompting some questions on when the case could be considered cold.

On November 13, Kaylee Goncalves, 21, Madison Mogen, 21, Ethan Chapin, 20, and Xana Kernodle, 20 were found deceased in their residence located at 1122 King Road in Moscow, Idaho.

"Autopsies were conducted on November 17th. The Latah County Coroner confirmed the identity of the four murdered individuals and their cause and manner of death as homicide by stabbing. The coroner stated the four victims were likely asleep, some had defensive wounds, and each was stabbed multiple times. There was no sign of sexual assault," the Moscow Police said in a press release.

As of Tuesday, no suspect or person of interest has been identified and police have been unable to find a weapon that was used in the crime. Police previously said that they believe whoever committed the crime used a fixed-blade-style hunting knife.

On Monday, Brian Entin of NewsNationNow spoke with Moscow Police Public information officer Robbie Johnson and mentioned "fear" that this case could turn cold and asked if it was possible.

"Absolutely not," Johnson said. "This is not a cold case and what you can see to show that is we have so many tips coming in...we have essentially an army of experts and support from the FBI to go through all these tips and the tips are valuable."

Captain Roger Lanier said on Tuesday that Moscow Police are still receiving "viable" tips daily as well as "tips based on rumors."

According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, the definition of a cold case is "an unsolved criminal investigation (as of a homicide or abduction) that has stopped being actively pursued because of a lack of evidence."

In 2008, the National Institute of Justice stated that the definition of a cold case varies across the nation's different law enforcement agencies.

"The National Institute of Justice currently defines a cold case as any case whose probative investigative leads have been exhausted. In essence, this means a case that is only a few months old may be defined as being 'cold,'" the National Institute of Justice said.

Kenneth Mains, a former law enforcement official and founder of the American Investigative Society of Cold Cases explained to Newsweek that "cases go cold when there are no more leads to follow up on. You have done all the interviews, looked at all the surveillance videos and got all the lab reports back. Nothing."

"You reach out to experts to help but it doesn't. Nothing. Then you look at your desk and see all the other cases piling up because you haven't had time to work on them. Suddenly, the case gets pushed for the first time to the side of your desk and you start working on other cases until a lead comes in...then you follow up on that lead because as a detective that's all you want is another lead! But that new lead is a dead end. Nothing," Mains told Newsweek. "Eventually the case goes off your desk into a drawer and becomes cold. That's how it happens. Without warning, without hesitation it becomes cold. There is no time frame when this occurs...it's when all leads dry up and you start working on another case. That's how cases become cold."

Last month, William King, a professor and chair of the Department of Criminal Justice at Boise State University, spoke with Newsweek about the time elapsed in the investigation and cited a research article titled "Clearing Murders: Is It About Time?"

"Looking at the time elapsed between a homicide and clearance (clearance as arrest of a suspect) (Recgoeczi et al.), half (50%) of homicides are solved with an arrest of a suspect by day 17. After day 17, the probability of solving the homicide with an arrest tails-off gradually. The data reveal that suspects are still arrested between days 17 and 100, and eventually, 60 percent of homicides are solved by day 243," King told Newsweek.

Newsweek previously reached out to the Moscow Police Department for comment.

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