When Russia and Ukraine Will Agree to End War, According to Ex-NATO General

Former NATO general Hans-Lothar Domröse has identified the circumstances under which he believes Russia and Ukraine will agree to a truce and begin negotiations to end their war, which has lasted more than 10 months.

Domröse, a German military officer who served as a NATO lieutenant general, said he believes both sides could agree to a cease-fire at some point in 2023, adding that negotiations could last far after the initial truce. He said any truce would come when "both sides will understand that they are not moving anywhere."

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the Ukraine invasion on February 24, anticipating a quick victory over Kyiv. That was prevented by Ukraine's stronger than expected defense efforts, which were greatly bolstered by Western military aid. As the war rages on, how it will end remains uncertain, with neither side agreeing on terms to broker a peace deal.

Speaking to Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian online newspaper, Domröse said, "I expect a truce at the beginning of summer, when both sides will say: 'Now it doesn't make sense anymore.' The cease-fire will come sometime in 2023."

However, such a truce would only halt military action, which has left thousands of soldiers from both sides, as well as Ukrainian civilians, dead. Negotiating an end to the war will take considerably more time, Domröse said.

"A cease-fire means we stop shooting. Negotiations will probably take a long time. You need a mediator," he said. "Maybe U.N. Secretary-General Guterres, Turkish President Erdoğan or Indian Prime Minister Modi, although no one is really imposing themselves."

He said that negotiating an end to the war could be difficult, as both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have listed demands they have not indicated they would agree to.

A cease-fire could be possible if Zelensky were to agree to a "transition period" to reintegrate occupied territories such as Crimea—which was annexed in 2014 and remains under Russian control—back into Ukraine, Domröse said.

Margarita Balmaceda, a professor of diplomacy and international relations at Seton Hall University, told Newsweek she believes nothing will change until Russian stakeholders understand "how destructive this war is within Russia."

"When that happens, there will be pressure on Mr. Putin to engage in a real discussion with the international community, with Ukraine," she said. "But until that happens, I do not expect a real Russian serious commitment to any real negotiations that would bring any kind of more serious cease-fire."

There are signs some Russian leaders are aware of their struggles, Balmaceda said, pointing to recent missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as confirmation that military authorities know they "cannot do very much with the poorly prepared men they have on the ground, with the missiles they have."

Balmaceda also warned that it is "misleading" to say a cease-fire equates to a serious peace process that would put an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

"A lot of what we are seeing in 2022, I would argue, is the result of the 'cease-fires' of 2014, 2015 where Russia was able to take control of Ukrainian territory in Crimea, some parts of Donetsk, Luhansk—regroup and then attack again," she said. "So I think it's important to differentiate between a cease-fire and a more serious peace process."

What Putin, Zelensky Have Said About Peace Talks

Despite 10 months of fighting and enormous losses on both sides, efforts to begin negotiating an end to the war have been at a standstill. Ukraine has made significant military progress in recent months, reclaiming formerly occupied territory. But Russia shows no signs of giving up, and Putin has reportedly considered launching a new offensive in the early part of this year.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov listed three conditions for peace the Kremlin would not accept, saying "it is obvious that Kyiv is not ready for dialogue."

He said Russia would not agree to removing its troops from the eastern Donbas region, Crimea and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, both of which were annexed in September. Russia would also not agree to paying reparations or to "the surrender of international tribunals and the like."

A recent report from the Institute for the Study of War said that Putin does not appear to want a cease-fire, even if his troops could benefit from a temporary pause in fighting.

Zelensky has offered "nonnegotiable" conditions to end the war, including more global sanctions against Russia, its removal from U.N. Security Council membership, the recognition of Ukraine's borders and new security guarantees for his country.

Newsweek reached out to Russia and Ukraine's defense ministries for comment.

Updated 1/2/2023, 1:10 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from Margarita Balmaceda, a Seton Hall University professor.