When Will Idalia Hit Florida? Path Shows Timing of Landfall

Tropical Storm Idalia is heading toward Florida and is set to hit the Sunshine State by Wednesday morning.

As of Monday morning, the storm was 150 miles off the western tip of Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour, according to a National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. The storm is expected to develop into a hurricane later on Monday and begin barreling toward Florida's Gulf Coast. Forecasts show Idalia reaching the coast on Wednesday morning.

Current forecasts show Idalia making landfall just north of where Hurricane Ian landed. Ian was a Category 5 hurricane that devastated Florida's western coast in September 2022 before crossing the state and exiting on the eastern side. Ian killed more than 100 people and caused up to $210 billion in damage. Although Idalia is expected to be much weaker, it is prompting meteorologists to watch the storm closely.

The next NHC Idalia advisory will be released at 11 a.m. Eastern time. Newsweek reached out to AccuWeather by email for comment.

After Idalia hits Florida on Wednesday morning, current forecasts show it passing through the northern part of the state before moving on to southeastern Georgia by Wednesday afternoon and southeastern South Carolina by early Thursday morning. The southeastern tip of North Carolina may also experience some of the storm's impact before Idalia exits the U.S. and moves out into the Atlantic overnight Thursday.

A large swath of Florida's Gulf Coast is under a hurricane watch, with the southwestern tip of the state under a tropical storm watch. Cuba's western tip is under a hurricane warning.

Along with hurricane-force winds, Idalia is forecast to bring exceptional rainfall to Florida. The NHC advisory showed preliminary estimates of 6 to 10 inches along the Gulf Coast. Northern Florida and southern Georgia are also forecast to receive 6 to 10 inches of rain, as well as northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina.

Forecasts show that northern Florida as well as the eastern parts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina have a moderate risk of flash flooding, with marginal to slight risks for much of the rest of Florida. The entirety of Georgia, western South Carolina and nearly all of North Carolina have marginal to slight risks of flash flooding.

Idalia could cause up to 11 feet of storm surge on Florida's shore, heightening fears of devastating flooding along much of the state's west coast, NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said in a press briefing on Sunday.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis issued a warning to Florida residents in advance of the storm, alerting them that although the forecast is still unclear, there could be power outages and downed trees. Florida has mobilized 1,100 National Guard members, with 2,400 high-water vehicles and 12 aircraft at their disposal, for rescue and recovery efforts.