Who Won Gretchen Whitmer vs Tudor Dixon Michigan Debate? Analysts Weigh In

In their heated second and final debate before the November election, Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Republican challenger Tudor Dixon exchanged accusations as they clashed over critical issues including abortion rights, the economy, school safety and gun control.

The hour-long televised debate at Oakland University kicked off with a question about abortion, a topic that has dominated the race since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June.

Whitmer, who's seeking re-election after her first term in office, has made abortion rights the focus of her campaign and pledged her support for Proposal 3—a citizen-initiative measure placed on the November ballot which would enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution.

After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade this summer, Whitmer sued to block the enforcement of Michigan's 1931 abortion ban which would ban any abortion procedure with no exception for rape or incest. Her lawsuit led to one of the two court decisions which stopped the enforcement of the ban.

Dixon, a MAGA Republican endorsed by former President Donald Trump who has said she does not support an exception for rape or incest, but only supports abortion to save the life of the mother, has accused Whitmer of having a "radical opinion of abortion." But during the debate on Tuesday she also admitted that she will back the enforcement of Proposal 3 if that's "what the people want."

Richard Hall, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Michigan, told Newsweek this comment from Dixon was "disingenuous."

"Under Prop 3, governors and legislatures still have a great deal of policy discretion to curtail reproductive rights, and given Dixon's statements on the issue, she would use it. Were Prop 3 to fail and were the state Supreme Court to uphold the 1931 law currently on the books, Dixon would be in a position to enforce a law that bans abortions without exception and makes receiving one or performing one a felony," he said.

School safety was another critical topic for the two candidates, with Whitmer calling for stricter gun laws to keep kids safe and Dixon accusing her rival of allowing books in school that are inappropriate for young students because of their references to sex and gender.

"Do you really think books are more dangerous than guns?," Whitmer asked Dixon.

"I think there are dangers all over for our children. I don't rank one as different than the other," the Republican candidate responded. "I want to make sure our kids are safe no matter what."

Dixon, who's endorsed by the National Rifle Association, said that she supports having armed guards at schools.

The two candidates also touched upon rising inflation, with Dixon saying Whitmer "has not done anything to help." Whitmer said she wants to help Michigan residents struggling with surging costs with free or low-cost child care.

In her closing remarks, the Democratic incumbent portrayed her rival as someone who would take Michigan back rather than push forward for progress, and who would bring division in the state. "She stokes violence, spreads conspiracy theories, even attacks working women and teachers," Whitmer said of Dixon.

On the other hand, Dixon accused Whitmer of "carelessness" and "hypocrisy" in her closing statement. "You've all felt the pain of her failure and you deserve better," she told viewers.

"The debate was very substantive among two well-prepared candidates," Michael Traugott, professor at the Center for Political Studies of the University of Michigan, told Newsweek.

"As an incumbent, Whitmer had more substantive comments about some policies based upon her record, while Dixon could only speak in terms of proposals or attacks on Whitmer's record. Dixon's frequent term describing Whitmer was "radical" while Whitmer's for Dixon was "inexperienced." The first question in the debate was about abortion, a significant discriminator between the two candidates. Given that there is a referendum enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, this exchange probably favored Whitmer," said Traugott.

"Their differences mirror the situation between the two national parties. The race, in terms of candidate issue positions on major issues, is a microcosm of the larger partisan narrative going into the midterm elections," Ken Kollman, professor of political science at the University of Michigan, told Newsweek.

"Dixon, like most of her Republican colleagues running in state-wide elections across the country, has mostly adopted a Trump-version of Republicanism. Whitmer, in contrast, hews closely to the typical Democratic line on the major issues. Whitmer has a governing record to run on, and it seems according to polls that it will be enough to win."

Hall thinks this second debate might change the race in terms of voters' support, likely in favor of Dixon.

"The main difference [with the first debate] is that we are closer to the election. More voters are paying attention. Because Dixon is still a relative unknown, she may get a bump because of the added visibility and the fact that she was reasonably well-prepared," he said.

"Voters who've been watching the negative campaign advertising about her might find that surprising. Whitmer was generally more positive and less partisan, but she also connected Dixon to the extreme, conspiracy-minded wing of the Republican Party. Dixon was more negative, sometimes sarcastic, which sometimes backfires with voters. However, she did a good job of tying Whitmer to controversial pandemic policies, business closures, and Michigan's poor educational test scores, issues that will probably have traction with Michigan voters."

According to FiveThirtyEight, Whitmer is currently ahead in the race, with 49.4 percent of the vote against Dixon's 44.0 percent.

"That lead has declined steadily over the last few weeks as advertising by the under-funded Dixon side has increased," Hall said.

"I don't think anyone can predict the odds based on that polling with much confidence—estimating support for candidates is a lot easier than predicting whose supporters will turn out. New registrations and absentee ballots are up, which is historically better for Democrats, but the world has changed. This is the first post-pandemic, post-Jan. 6, post-Roe general election," he added.

"In Michigan, a reproductive rights proposition is on the ballot; that will help turn out Democratic voters. Whitmer's policies during the early months of the pandemic angered a lot of Michiganders, which could boost Republican turnout. Inflation is high and Biden is unpopular, which will dampen Democratic enthusiasm, but the Republican Party candidates in Michigan, and Dixon in particular, have tied themselves to Trump and his election conspiracy theories.

"For economic reasons, Biden will be on voters' minds more than Trump, but Trump is still hanging around Republican necks. That was good for Republican candidates running in the primaries. It might not help them in the general."

Correction 10/28/2022 8:45 a.m. ET: This article was updated to correct attribution of two quotes to Professor Michael Traugott.