Why Chechens Can't Replace Wagner in Ukraine

Russia's stalled offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region is serving as a stage for internecine Kremlin politicking, according to the Institute for the Study of War, with President Vladimir Putin and his allies in the Russian military hierarchy possibly using the fierce fighting there to clip the wings of potential rivals.

The ISW's Wednesday evening update said that the Russian military appears to have ordered forces loyal to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—publicly an avowed Putin loyalist but one of the few elite Russian figures with an independent military power base—to go on the offensive in Donetsk Oblast, which through the 15-month full-scale invasion has been one of the hottest portions of the front line.

The order—confirmed by Kadyrov and one of his top commanders—comes as Wagner Group mercenary forces led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin began withdrawing from the occupied city of Bakhmut after months of fierce fighting and punishing losses. Their exit follows tensions with the regular Russian military hierarchy, which Prigozhin has repeatedly accused of intentionally throttling supplies to Wagner fighters.

The ISW suggested that the new Chechen deployment will not fill the gap left by Wagner's experienced and numerous fighters, and that the Kremlin may be using the situation to weaken a Prigozhin-Kadyrov relationship that has previously proved problematic for the regular Russian military.

"The claimed return of Chechen forces to offensive operations would break Kadyrovites from a nearly yearlong hiatus from participating in high-intensity combat operations," the ISW wrote, noting Kadyrov's troops "have been largely operating in the rear after participating in the battles for Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk.

"Chechen units' limited participation on the frontlines alongside Kadyrov's heavy emphasis on recruitment may suggest that Kadyrov is hesitant to commit his forces to grinding offensive operations in Ukraine despite his ultranationalist narratives.

"Putin may have coerced Kadyrov into assuming an offensive role in the war to compensate for Wagner's likely culmination," ISW said of the fighting in Bakhmut.

Though Russian and Wagner forces have captured the city proper, fierce fighting continues around its outskirts. In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have advanced to the south and north of the devastated city, making Russian positions more precarious.

The ISW noted the questionable capabilities of the Chechen forces still in Ukraine, which Kadyrov has said number around 7,000 fighters. Their limited frontline exposure and preponderance for social media bravado have earned them the derisive nickname of the "TikTok Battalion" among Ukrainians and foreign observers.

"The Kremlin may perceive Chechen units as an untapped assault force that can restore Russia's ability to sustain simultaneous offensive efforts on multiple axes of advance," the ISW update read. "If Kadyrov's claims that he has 7,000 troops in Ukraine are close to accurate his forces will not be able to mount multiple significant offensive operations successfully."

Alex Kokcharov, a risk analyst specializing in Russia and Ukraine, told Newsweek: "Based on the previous deployments of various Chechen units in 2022, they are probably not the most combat-ready troops, despite all their social media bravado about how wonderful they are."

"There have been several incidents where they were deployed to the frontlines, and they have sustained very significant casualties," Kokcharov added.

The Chechen units, he said, are effectively "paramilitary police," with additional military training, operating separately from the Russian Defense Ministry.

The rotation of troops in the Donbas region, Kokcharov said, may hint at broader force issues for Moscow.

"They don't appear to be deploying any fresh troops," he said. "They are using troops who are already in Ukraine, which to me would suggest that they are experiencing manpower issues."

The deteriorating situation along the Ukraine-Russia frontier, Kokcharov added, may further stretch the Kremlin's forces.

There may be a deeper political goal to the new deployment, the ISW wrote.

"The Kremlin may also be attempting to sever Kadyrov's relationship with Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and re-emphasize federal authority over Chechen forces," the bulletin read, recalling how Prigozhin and Kadyrov cooperated to force changes within the regular command structure in October 2022, and to release additional supplies for Wagner fighters in Bakhmut in early May 2023.

"Putin may have perceived Kadyrov's behavior as a threat to his control," the ISW suggested. "Putin or the Russian military command may have ordered Kadyrov to increase the presence of his units on the battlefield in retaliation for Kadyrov's blackmail attempt."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.