Why Crimea Is 'Decisive Terrain' for Russia-Ukraine War

Crimea remains the grand prize in Ukraine's efforts to defeat Russia's full-scale invasion of the country, the former commander of U.S. Army Europe has told Newsweek, as Kyiv's troops continue a slow southward push that could prove pivotal in shaping the conclusion of a nine-year conflict thought to have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

"The ground part of this counteroffensive is obviously aimed at being able to sever, either by occupation or through fire, the so-called 'land bridge,'" retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said, referring to the swath of occupied southern Ukraine now connecting Crimea to western Russia.

The land bridge, also known as the "land corridor," is one of President Vladimir Putin's most salient achievements in 18 months of combat. Moscow still partially occupies four Ukrainian regions—and claims to have annexed all four in their totality, even without controlling them. Losing them to a Ukrainian counteroffensive would be logistically and symbolically painful for the Kremlin.

Kyiv's current operation is "a tale of two bridges," Dan Rice, a former adviser to Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, has previously told Newsweek. Severing the land bridge and the Kerch Strait Bridge will isolate and imperil Russia's units in Crimea and southern Ukraine.

"Once you get the Kerch Bridge down again, this completely changes the game for Crimea, which is what matters the most," Hodges explained. "We want to keep our eye on what is the ultimate aim of the counteroffensive."

"I hear sometimes from the Pentagon that we want to help push the Russians back. No, it's not about pushing them back. This is about the decisive terrain. It's about isolating Crimea and then being able to bring up enough long-range weapons that Crimea becomes untenable for the Russian navy and the Russian air force to operate from there."

Ukrainian forces are currently battling their way to—and according to some reports, through—Russia's network of fortified defensive lines in southern Ukraine. Kyiv's units are having to pick their way through expansive minefields under artillery fire, which President Volodymyr Zelensky has cited as one reason for the "slower than desired" pace of the operation.

The land corridor is less than 100 miles wide at points. Ukrainian troops do not necessarily have to advance all the way to the Sea of Azov coast to make life difficult for Russian forces there. Liberating settlements like Tokmak and Melitopol that act as logistical hubs will also greatly undermine Russia's defenses in the area, if the Ukrainians can reach them. Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

The 155mm tube-fired dual-purpose improved conventional munitions now being used by Ukrainian gunners are already complicating the situation for Russian units, Hodges said. Expanded Western support to include longer-range cluster munition rockets fired from NATO-made M270 multiple launch rockets systems and the American M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System would "really make a big difference," he added.

"That would eradicate Russian artillery very quickly," Hodges said. "And it would also make it very difficult for any convoys bringing troops, or ammunition, or other stuff down the so-called land bridge."

Cornerstone Crimea

Some Western officials have expressed concern over Kyiv's repeatedly stated ambition to liberate Crimea, the seizure of which by Russian troops in 2014 touched off the ongoing hot phase of a Moscow-Kyiv conflict simmering for decades.

Crimea is a cornerstone of Putin's revitalized Russia, his largely bloodless seizure of the peninsula a symbol of Moscow's daring and Western impotence. When Western officials calculate the danger of Russian escalation, Crimea is given special cachet. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, for example, reportedly said in February that control of the peninsula is a red line for the Kremlin.

Nuclear escalation is foremost in the minds of Western leaders. Several, including President Joe Biden, have repeatedly made clear they will not risk a direct NATO-Russia confrontation for this reason. Russian officials, Putin included, have often made nuclear threats against Ukraine and its Western partners.

Russia's nuclear doctrine suggests it can revert to weapons of mass destruction when "the very existence of the state is in jeopardy."

Earlier this year, former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev—now largely sidelined within the Kremlin but also one of its most vocal hawks—said that any "serious offensives involving an attempt to retake Crimea" would "serve as a basis for the use of all means of protection, including those provided for by the basic doctrine of nuclear deterrence."

Despite the threats, Kyiv says it intends to liberate all Ukrainian territory per its 1991 borders, including Crimea. Indeed, the 2022 full-scale invasion has given Ukraine its best chance to free the peninsula since its seizure in 2014. "It began with Crimea, it will end with Crimea," Zelensky said last summer.

Regular drone and special forces attacks on the peninsula, and on the Kerch Strait Bridge underline Kyiv's commitment. For Ukrainian officials, Crimea is very much part of the battlefield.

"The Ukrainians know that Crimea is the decisive terrain, that they'll never be safe or secured as long as Russia occupies Crimea, and they can launch strikes with their navy and air force from Crimea and launch missiles against all of Ukraine's seaports," Hodges—who has been a prominent advocate for Ukraine's proposed liberation of Crimea—said.

"I don't think they'll be able to rebuild their economy as long as Russia occupies Crimea and can disrupt anything going in and out of Odesa, Kherson, or Mykolaiv. And of course, the other two main seaports—Berdiansk and Mariupol—even after they're liberated will be useless, because Russia will continue to block the Azov Sea from Crimea."

Hodges has long been critical of proponents of Ukrainian territorial concessions in exchange for peace with Russia. Ukrainian officials, too, have dismissed talk of negotiations as misguided, citing a severe lack of trust in Russian commitments.

"I'm surprised at how many people glibly say, 'Let them have Crimea for the sake of peace,'" Hodges said. "First of all, how ignorant that you think that would actually satisfy them, or that Russia would honor any agreement, or that Russia would not disrupt shipping or do other things to damage Ukraine's economy."

"Why should Russia be rewarded for all that they have done? The Chinese for sure, will be watching that. They see that we're willing to give up another country's territory."

"Can you imagine telling the Germans to give up former East German states for the sake of peace? Or telling the U.S. to give Alaska back to Russia for the sake of peace? That's ridiculous, but for some reason people are willing to tell Ukraine that they should give up Crimea."