Why Donald Trump May Want a Third Term and How He Might Get It | Opinion

In a phone interview with NBC News, President Donald Trump said he is seriously thinking about seeking a third term in office despite the 22^nd Amendment to the constitution, which would seem to bar him from doing so. Without elaborating, Trump stated: "There are methods which you could do it." Because he has whimsically mentioned it before, he added: "No, I'm not joking. I'm not joking." Because he did not wish to discuss it further, he ended the discussion: "It is far too early to think about it."

To understand and appreciate Trump's newest third-term comments, context is essential. While I would not pretend to have the ability to get inside Trump's head, he is not exactly a mysterious figure as he begins his second term.

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Unlike Trump's first term as president, when there was virtually no advance planning when he took office other than to build a wall ("Mexico will pay for it"). And that lack of blueprint was clear throughout his presidency. It was all about reactions to circumstance ("[COVID]'s going to disappear; one day it's like a miracle, it will disappear"). Trump's second term is already very different. Although Trump, again, did not make plans for his second term, others did.

When Trump won the GOP nomination, these planners (many of whom were former Trump staffers, appointees or admirers) were delighted. They knew he was an empty vessel, that his base would like their plans, and that Trump would go along because he'd believe it would make him look good. They understood their ideas were radical and why Trump had to distance himself from the plans and planners during the campaign. (Project 2025 who?).

Trump's second term is being built largely on the work of more than 100 conservative organizations (which provided almost $150 million in funding to his campaign) and more than 400 scholars and policy experts from across the conservative movement, all under the umbrella of the Washington think-tank, the Heritage Foundation. Heritage developed and presented their thinking in what became 900+ pages of plans and recommendations called Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise. You know it as that same Project 2025 Trump shunned more than once.

These conservative planners hold a common orthodoxy that the best future for America demands elimination of all things politically liberal (read e.g., "woke," "DEI," "leftists," "progressives"), a need to nurture the traditional family, and the imperative of redesigning the federal government. The last is particularly focused on the administrative state, and its—they say—bloated, overpaid, and unaccountable bureaucracy created and/or corrupted by liberal presidents and their administrations.

The conservative planners task an all-powerful president, whom they believe has ample authority thanks to Article II of the Constitution—under the "unitary executive theory"—to undertake this conservative reformation of government. But they warn at the outset of their report that he must act fast: "History teaches that a President's power to implement an agenda is at its apex during the Administration's opening days." Accordingly, they provided drafts of hundreds of executive orders as part of a "180-day playbook" to swiftly implement the radical agenda, and "to bring quick relief to Americans suffering from the Left's devastating policies."

With this background, and what in fact has occurred since Trump return to the Oval Office, it is understandable why he is no longer joking about a third term. Nor should anyone familiar with the subject be surprised that he has discovered there are "methods" by which he could have one.

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Trump and his team appear to see the broad sweep of conservative recommendations of Project 2025 as nothing less than a check list for a conservative president. They believe these hundreds of recommendations represent the hopes and desires of the rank and file—the MAGA base—and believe they will be measured by that yardstick.

We are just more than 10 weeks into Trump 2.0, which is too early to measure his success or failure. We are not yet halfway into the "180 Day Playbook," but Trump has already signed more than 100 executive orders—with nearly two-thirds reflecting Project 2025 proposals. Elon Musk's DOGE wrecking ball is all part of the plan, as are Trump's "liberation day" tariffs.

Trump surely knows his presidency is being closely measured; it happens with all presidents. He also knows that notwithstanding his aggressive efforts—and his spin of the situation—he is, in fact, failing terribly. His executive orders, which are the predicate of virtually all his actions, have been blatantly and shamefully illegal and have been halted by more than a hundred lawsuits. Elections in Florida and Wisconsin have shown the public what the White House already understood from private polling—voters are rejecting Trump's push for this radical agenda. And his tariffs have earned him worldwide condemnation, with Wall Street hit particularly hard.

Trump is maybe the most media savvy president ever, and he knows he needs time to sell and accomplish his transformative agenda. People who have known him intimately for decades tell me he really wants to be remembered as a great president—Mount Rushmore-worthy. When he made his latest statement about a third term, he knew he had fewer than 1,400 days of his presidency remaining. He must be dreaming of what four more years—a third term—would enable him to accomplish.

It is "far too early" to be discussing this. Trump has only sold his vision for this radical reformation of America to those close to him, and of course the conservative planners who developed his agenda. Trump understands all of this will take time. For the tariffs alone to work is a matter of years, if not decades, he has been told.

In all, his dreams are the stuff of other's nightmares and cannot happen overnight.

But there could be more time, and Trump has clearly been advised there are, in fact, "methods" by which a two-term president might obtain a third term, or more.

Trump's rash of second-term executive orders show he is not confined to what is clearly legal (although he may claim he is merely testing the law), and his excessive employment of tariffs to disrupt the world's economic order evidenced the ease with he entertains the irrational. Accordingly, for the sake of discussion, I will assume that he is not talking about conspicuously illegal methods nor particularly rational means to get a third term—like another coup—but rather operating according to the law but not necessarily good sense. This means a possibly legal, albeit constitution shattering approach. Surely, Trump has been told there have been scholarly discussions and debates over the past quarter-century about possible flaws in the 22nd Amendment, which would enable a two-term president to legally serve a third term.

The potential for a three-term president was raised by a 1999 law journal article, which was the first serious scholarly examination of the situation. The focus of that scholarship was an analysis of the drafting of the 22nd Amendment, which the authors found merely precludes a president who has "served" two terms from seeking "election" to a third term, and not from "serving" a third term. This analysis opens up a number of routes for a term-limited president to again serve, so long as it is not via an election.

For example, a former two-term president could run as vice president and then again serve as president if the president-elect or president resigned or died. There are a host of other scholars who see it differently, believing the 22nd Amendment limits anyone who has served as president to two terms regardless. It is all nicely summarized by author Bruce Peabody, who started the debate.

I know able attorneys and eminent scholars on both sides of the analysis. Not surprisingly, I found they think any debate premature. They want to keep their powder dry because they fear Trump is more than likely to seek a third term. Also, many are deeply concerned that a Supreme Court than has largely immunized the president from criminal proceedings would give him a third term should the public elect him. Hopefully, the high court will not create an elected king. We will soon get some readings as the illegal acts found in countless executive orders and other radical actions proceed toward the court.

I am also keeping my powder dry.

John W. Dean, was Richard Nixon's White House Counsel. You can find him at johnwdean.bsky.social