Why Joe Biden Needs Joe Manchin More than Ever

When Democrats took control of the federal government in 2020, the party immediately got to work implementing President Joe Biden's vision for a greener America powered by millions of new energy sector jobs, passing landmark legislation intended to transform the industry.

After losing control of the House in 2022, Democrats' path toward holding on to the Senate in 2024 requires the party to convince voters in some of the nation's top energy-producing states that the Biden Administration's energy agenda has benefitted them.

A little more than half of America's total energy production comes from five states—Texas, Wyoming, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Democrats want to flip Texas, and the latter two are on the party's 23-state list of Senate seats it will defend in 2024, one that includes three solidly red states in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. In a normal year, with their series of legislative victories, Democrats would have a strong record to sell voters.

However, with the country embroiled in bitter culture wars and Democrats struggling to sell their victories to the masses, blue candidates in red states face an uphill battle in making the case to voters that their party's policies outweigh some of its politics. Nowhere will this challenge be greater than in West Virginia, a state that could set the tone for how the Democratic energy agenda will be received by rural and blue-collar Americans for years to come.

"The energy policies and the approach to these [climate] questions that the Democratic Party has is not what a majority of West Virginia voters want," Hans Noel, a political science professor at Georgetown University, told Newsweek. "But they are willing to vote for [Democratic Senator] Joe Manchin, because even though they don't agree with Democrats on that issue and a bunch of other issues, they like Manchin's way of representing things."

Manchin's status as chair of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee and as a red-state Democrat in a 50-50 Senate afforded the three-term senator and his state with immense influence during the first two years of Biden's presidency. The West Virginian positioned himself as a critical swing vote, meaning any party-line legislation needed his sign-off. That put him in position to thwart some of the agenda of his party's progressive wing and make demands for his state.

Manchin successfully curtailed federal spending proposals, ensured completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, reformed energy permitting, and saw to it that West Virginia would reap the benefits of the Democratic party's green energy push.

Despite this outsized influence in the Senate, Manchin has yet to say whether he intends to run for reelection. He has also appeared publicly with No Labels, a nonprofit advocating for a third-party presidential candidate. If he chooses not to run in 2024, his party will be left without one of its chief energy policy architects and top ambassadors to rural America. But if he does seek reelection, Manchin faces an uphill battle to keep his seat.

West Virginia's Last Democratic Power Player

West Virginia totaled the second highest margin of victory for former President Donald Trump in 2020, second only to Wyoming. Republicans also secured a major internal victory when West Virginia's Republican Governor Jim Justice announced his intent to enter the 2024 Senate race.

While Justice must first win a GOP primary against three other declared opponents, including Congressman Alex Mooney, who holds credibility among the MAGA faithful, many expect the governor to come out ahead. With his 66 percent approval rating, fifth highest among U.S. governors, and a vast personal fortune that will allow him to self-fund a campaign, Justice could be one of the toughest opponents Manchin has faced to date.

While it's unlikely that any Democrat other than Manchin would stand a chance against Justice, the Biden administration's record will serve as a central fixture of the race regardless of who runs. At its heart are the $1.2 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which passed along bipartisan lines, and the $433 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which passed along strict party lines and was heavily shaped by Manchin.

While Justice condemned the IRA as a "bad, bad move" that would cost the state jobs, West Virginia is beginning to see its benefits. Competitive Power Ventures announced in September that it would open a natural gas-fired power plant in the state. In May, Form Energy broke ground on a new iron-air battery manufacturing plant to the state. Manchin credited these openings to IRA incentives.

The Justice campaign declined Newsweek's request to provide comment for this story.

According to Manchin's office, the IRA secured West Virginia $5 billion in energy infrastructure loan guarantees to help existing coal and natural gas plants improve efficiency, $4 billion in tax credits for clean energy manufacturers located in coal communities, and $1.55 billion to help natural gas companies deploy new technologies to lower methane emissions, among other benefits.

"I think the inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure legislation are really set up to potentially provide substantial benefits for West Virginia, as it begins to accelerate this transition away from fossil fuels," Barry Rabe, a nonresident senior fellow with the Brookings Institution and a University of Michigan professor specialized in energy and environmental policy, told Newsweek.

"Red states, where their entire congressional delegation voted against the IRA, are lining up for the benefits," he added, "which is a super interesting dynamic going into the 2024 election."

An August analysis by Politico found that more than 60 percent of the 200 clean energy projects announced last month were located in GOP-held congressional districts. This trend extends back beyond the July figures on which the report was based, with a January Politico analysis revealing that roughly two-thirds of energy projects related to the IRA were in Republican districts. This comes at a time when U.S. oil production, which already ranks as the highest in the world, is on pace to break a new record this year.

When asked for comment, Manchin's office pointed to his work securing the Mountain Valley Pipeline's approval and IRA funds for his state as evidence that his work benefits West Virginia. His office responded to criticism that Manchin's policies harm his state's fossil fuel industry by pointing to record oil production and IRA provisions requiring new oil and gas leases. Manchin has repeatedly said he will not comment on his 2024 plans till the end of the year.

Selling Green Energy to Red America

The White House has remained on defense regarding the price of gas and its role in the energy sector, despite its legislative successes in that arena. A politician with years of experience dealing with energy policy at the highest level told Newsweek that if the White House wants to change this dynamic, its rhetoric must match its actions.

"Unfortunately, their message is ultra-green, yet their policies are overall balanced," Landrieu said. "It's unfortunate, because the president, through the IRA, has laid down some really exciting opportunities for the incumbent industry to evolve, but because the green rhetoric is so strong against the industry, it's become counterproductive."

Like Manchin, Landrieu was a key centrist who chaired the Energy Committee during her time in Congress. She explained that when she speaks of the "incumbent industry" she's not only talking about fossil fuels, but the broader coalition of petrochemical, fertilizer, cement, steel, plastic, pharmaceutical, and construction industries that rely on oil and gas.

Landrieu said when some liberals talk about phasing out fossil fuels, people hear that they are undermining the country's manufacturing base and workforce. Traditional swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania make up some of the nation's top manufacturing centers, and manufacturing, particularly of the materials mentioned above, requires fossil fuels. Similarly, farmers rely on fossil fuels for the nitrogen fertilizer needed to tend their crops.

The Louisiana Democrat shares Manchin's position that the energy sector needs "more of everything"—more nuclear, hydropower, wind power, solar power, and reduced-emission fossil fuels. She believes that more and more leaders in the oil and gas industry have evolved to understand that their industry must become greener and be a part of climate change solutions and can make money in the process.

Landrieu said the Biden administration's policies have been "encouraging" in bringing about this new energy future, but that its anti-industry rhetoric must change to bring more of the incumbent industry into the fold and prevent the alienation of communities and industries that still rely on fossil fuels, particularly natural gas.

"President Biden has to put his mouth where he's put his money," Landrieu said. "Many of the benefits of the renewable energy transition are falling into these red, rural states who are seeing increased job opportunities, but unfortunately there will be no commensurate political benefit to President Biden because of the mismatch between the actual policies and the rhetoric."

What West Virginia Voters are Saying

Newsweek spoke to 10 voters, five men and five women of a range of ages, at the State Fair of West Virginia in August about energy and politics heading into the 2024 election. None of these voters identified as a Democrat. Three said they were independents, seven said they were Republican, but those that identified as Republicans also said their party affiliation did not mean their mind was made up about the Senate race.

Two independents and four Republicans said they did not know whether they would support Manchin or Justice if the race came down to those two. Two Republicans and one independent said they would support Justice. One Republican said they would support Manchin. Six of the 10 also said they were worried about the state of West Virginia's coal industry, but no one named it as a top issue. However, five voters cited economic issues as their top concerns.

Greg Hall, 53, used to work in energy but has since begun a career in sales. Despite identifying as a Republican, Hall believes Manchin overall has done a good job for the state. He also believes Justice has done a good job as governor, and said he'd have to see what happens closer to the election cycle before deciding who he'd support.

"When I go to vote, I don't vote strictly Republican," Hall said. "Locally, if I know the person and I've had a relationship with that person, it doesn't matter if they're Republican or Democrat."

"I don't know who I'd support," he added. "That's something I'd have to decide later."

While sentiments like Hall's can still be found across the state, Samuel Workman, a political science professor and director of the Institute for Policy Research and Public Affairs at West Virginia University, said that as with other areas of America, the nationalization of politics has made West Virginia voters less willing to cross party lines.

Having grown up and lived in West Virginia for most of his life, Workman said the state has traditionally been insulated from national politics. However, he noted that national political narratives now "operate on a very local level." As the relationship between party identification and cultural issues has grown, the national Democratic Party has fallen out of step with many in the state, particularly as energy has become a partisan focal point.

"People's social values here really haven't changed," Workman told Newsweek. "It's just that Republicans especially are having an easier time amplifying those issues to center people's votes, and Democrats have a harder time avoiding those sorts of things."

Additionally, Democratic control of state politics coincided with a statewide decline, Workman said. The state's population peaked at over 2 million people in 1950 but has dropped since, with a population of just 1.79 million today. Since at least 1990, it has ranked as one of the poorest states in the nation, and today it ranks as the fourth-poorest state.

Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito was the first national Republican to capitalize on these issues, becoming the first member of her party to represent West Virginia in Congress since 1983 after flipping the state's 2^nd District in 2000. When she was elected to the Senate in 2015, Capito became the first Republican to represent West Virginia in the upper chamber since 1959.

Capito believes the Democratic party's stance on environmental issues, gun rights, and general "pocketbook" issues have contributed to her party's rise in the state.

"I think policies of the Democrat[ic] Party are far removed from the working men and women in West Virginia," Capito told Newsweek. "I think it's been that over time, and then solutions that we've offered as Republicans I think are much more in line with how West Virginians think."

Can Democrats Reverse Rural Redness?

The issue of Democrats falling out of line with how voters think in rural and blue-collar states has persisted for some time. Over the past decade, the party has seen its Senate incumbents fall to Republican challengers in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Landrieu's own Louisiana.

A February 2022 Morning Consult poll found that two out of three rural voters hold unfavorable views of the Democratic Party. Besides Ohio and Florida, all those losses over the past decade rank among the 25 most rural states.

While the Morning Consult poll found that issues like policing and immigration were most likely to turn rural voters off from the Democratic Party, 46 percent of rural voters thought the Republican Party "cares more about wealthy Americans" as opposed to 31 percent feeling the same about the Democratic Party. Furthermore, while 28 percent of rural voters thought Democrats were "willing to compromise" as opposed to 35 percent of Republicans, 30 percent remained undecided.

If Democrats can find a way to convey their message and demonstrate the support they have seen from across the aisle while showing how their policies benefit rural and blue-collar communities, the party could see Democrats like Manchin rise to victory and ensure the party's control of the Senate beyond 2024.

Pennsylvania's Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr., whose state Trump won in 2016 but Biden flipped in 2020, has some advice. As Casey, who boasts an approval rating 31 points higher than Biden, gears up for reelection, he's taking a simple approach—acknowledging that voters understand what helps them and what does not and filling in the gaps by explaining his party's record.

"I think most people in my state know the importance of having a strong, diverse energy sector," Casey told Newsweek. "We have that in the country, and we have a lot of that in Pennsylvania. But they also know we've got to combat climate change."

"You're seeing a lot of the clean energy investments as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act actually coming to fruition in Republican states," he added, "so I think sometimes voters are ahead of the elected officials and can see ahead on this."