Will China Invade Taiwan in 2025?

Experts have told Newsweek that China will continue to escalate against Taiwan in the new year as the "unpredictable" Donald Trump takes office as U.S. president later this month.

Newsweek has reached out to the U.S. State Department and Trump's transition team, as well as the Chinese Embassy and Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, D.C., for comment by email.

Why It Matters

China has long claimed that Taiwan, a self-ruled island and a U.S. security partner, as part of its territory despite never having governed it and has refused to renounce using force against it. In May, October and December last year, the Chinese military conducted three large-scale exercises around Taiwan, further increasing the military pressure on the island.

While the U.S. is required by law to maintain its capability to resist any attempt to resolve differences across the Taiwan Strait by other than peaceful means, Trump, who positioned himself as being tough on China, has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China.

Following his reelection last November, Beijing warned Trump to handle issues related to Taiwan prudently. Meanwhile, a Taiwanese poll showed that the public confidence in America's military intervention to defend the island fell sharply after Trump's victory.

In its latest report on Chinese military power, the Pentagon said China would seek to deter potential U.S. intervention in any Taiwan contingency campaign, and might choose to escalate cyberspace, space or nuclear activities in an attempt to end a protracted conflict.

What To Know

Kitsch Liao, assistant director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, said it would be less about whether there will be an invasion but what sort of coercion China would ramp up to eventually take over Taiwan given developments in Taiwan, the U.S. and Ukraine.

"Beijing, much like Taiwan and the rest of the world, does not have a good grasp on what Trump would decide for any particular development in a Taiwan Strait crisis situation," Liao said, and U.S. and Taiwan leadership can leverage this uncertainty against China.

It is difficult to predict how things will unfold as Trump is often unpredictable, said Brian Hart, deputy director and fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies China Power Project. "The question is whether and how Beijing shifts its approach [on Taiwan]."

Some Chinese experts believe that the reelection of Trump, who takes a transactional approach, offers opportunities to strike a deal on Taiwan with the U.S., Hart noted. However, if China ratchets up pressure on Taiwan, it will increase the chances of crisis and conflict.

Dr. Liang-chih Evans Chen, associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, said it comes down to how China will react to the policy of the incoming Trump administration, which he considers will still be tough on Beijing.

This would raise a difficulty for Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, to consider a war against Taiwan, who might "slow down a bit" to invade the island but not completely get rid of, Chen explained, and the risk of an armed confrontation or even a military confrontation "is definitely increasing."

China's decision on whether to invade Taiwan is shaped by internal and external primary considerations, said Wu Se-chih, director of Taiwan Thinktank's China Research Center.

According to Wu, Xi may wish to shift internal pressure, derived from economic and social challenges, by escalating actions against Taiwan. China has accused the U.S. of weaponizing trade, with Trump threatening to impose an additional tariff on China.

Externally, China's ambition for military expansion, seeking to breach America's island chain strategy in the Pacific Ocean, fuels its desire to achieve military modernization by 2027. This strategy leverages allied or friendly territories to contain the Chinese military.

What People Are Saying

A U.S. State Department spokesperson told Newsweek: "Our priority remains peace and security across the Taiwan Strait. We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo by either side."

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., told Newsweek: "Our policy is clear and consistent, that is, to continue to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity ... Some people in the United States attempt to exaggerate the tension in the Taiwan Strait and provoke confrontation, and we firmly oppose this."

Brian Hart: "It's important to keep in mind that Taiwan is one issue within the broader U.S.-China relationship. If tensions spike in other areas of the relationship, such as on trade, that can lead to misperceptions and reduced trust on both sides, which can spill over into tensions over Taiwan."

Kitsch Liao: "For Trump's second term, China's basic calculation toward Taiwan will not change. Beijing will continue to escalate ... continue to squeeze Taiwan and the U.S. by testing both sides' reactions to China's escalating grey-zone campaign [nonmilitary and quasi-military activities that fall below the threshold of armed conflict] against Taiwan."

Dr. Liang-chih Evans Chen: "Taiwanese confidence in U.S. military intervention drops following a Trump reelection, it could significantly result from their perceptions of President Trump's personality, mainly a businessman and his decision/policy [unpredictability]."

Wu Se-chih: "If China uses force against Taiwan, it will face pressure from international sanctions and risks to Xi Jinping's leadership. This complex cost-benefit calculation makes a military invasion far from straightforward."

What Happens Next

It remains to be seen whether the second Trump administration will adjust U.S. military posture in the Western Pacific Ocean, where Taiwan forms part of the first island chain, a north-south blockade against China. For China, it is likely that Beijing will continue its military exercises around Taiwan, demonstrating its resolve to fend off a U.S. intervention.

Update 01/03/25, 12:33 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comments from a U.S. State Department spokesperson and Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C.