Will Hurd's Chances of Taking Down Donald Trump in GOP Primary

Former Texas congressman and prominent Trump critic Will Hurd has thrown his hat into the crowded Republican primary for president, bringing the total size of the field to 13 hopefuls.

The former CIA agent told CBS on Thursday morning that he was running for president to help elevate issues he felt the leaders of both parties no longer took seriously, saying he was "pissed" elected officials in the United States were preaching division over unity.

"I believe the Republican Party can be the party that talks about the future and not the past," he said.

But will Will Hurd be heard?

Polling, at this early stage of the primary, is so far not promising.

While frontrunner Donald Trump has seen a slight dip in polling after his federal indictment on charges tied to his alleged mishandling of classified material, he still maintains a steady grip on the Republican electorate, leading his next closest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, by a near-30 point margin in numbers compiled by RealClearPolitics.

DeSantis, meanwhile, has faced a deluge of attacks by the former president, as well as more moderate figures like former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who has been floated as a potential third-party challenger to Trump and DeSantis under a prospective "No Labels" ticket.

"The culture wars," Hogan, a Republican, said of DeSantis in a Wednesday interview with CBS. "The dumb comments about Ukraine. The fact that he–he's got some strengths, but he's also got some weaknesses. I mean, he just doesn't connect with people. He's not a good campaigner. He's not a good debater. He's a smart guy, went to Yale and Harvard."

Trump's camp has already taken to the press to portray Hurd's announcement as an effort to cash in on those shortcomings.

"Let's be honest, Never-Trumper Will Hurd wouldn't even consider getting in this race if Ron DeSantis' campaign wasn't in total free fall," Karoline Leavitt, a Trump spokesperson, told the conservative-leaning Daily Caller Thursday morning. "Hurd's entry means nothing for President Trump's standing, but means everything for Ron DeSantis, further underscoring how far Ron's star has fallen."

Newsweek reached out to Hurd's campaign via email for comment.

In some respects, Hurd shares many similarities with Hogan.

A moderate in Congress, the Texas Republican occupied a highly competitive district outside the multicultural epicenter of San Antonio, which featured a large number of Hispanic voters. He was also an early critic of the former president, denouncing him after the release of a leaked tape from the set of Access Hollywood in which Trump appeared to condone sexual assault.

And while he threaded the needle as a congressman—he voted with Trump roughly 80 percent of the time, and voted against both Trump's impeachment as well as a resolution compelling the release of Trump's tax returns—he also took more moderate positions on issues like immigration, earning him criticisms from the Trump campaign after his announcement of being soft on a key issue to GOP voters.

"Hurd presents a level-headed no-nonsense kind of politician," Sharon Navarro, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio told Newsweek.

"He is a more moderate Conservative (he was very well-liked in his district and enjoyed engaging with constituents) and he is hoping to convince the ultraconservative movement within the Republican party that they are headed in the wrong direction, similar to [Chris] Christie and [Asa] Hutchison. This will be a huge mountain for Hurd to climb and in his attempt to change the direction of the Republican Party," she said.

However, there is some indication Hurd could potentially siphon some support from Trump and other, more conservative candidates in the field.

A Wednesday polling memo from the progressive Data for Progress suggested in a general election, a generic moderate candidate could siphon two percentage points from Trump's vote share among Republicans and 8 percent of Republican-leaning independents, meaning there is a small opening for a moderate to earn some share of the vote.

Hurd has also shown a demonstrated track record of success with Hispanic voters, who are becoming an increasingly critical subset of the Republican electorate. In 2016, Hurd defied comparisons to Trump in his 68 percent Hispanic district, maintaining the seat by a narrow 3,000 vote margin in a contentious three-way race.

Still, he faces a lot of hurdles to clear before voters take him seriously.

"Hurd is going to have to carefully craft himself as the 'better than ultraconservative' candidate," Navarro said. "Hurd may perhaps present himself as an alternative to the electorate who were Republican but have since become independent because they do not like the direction of the Republican Party (because of issues like the ban on abortion, etc.).

"He may even appeal to Democratic voters who are concerned with Biden's age and won't vote Republican because of Trump. In a way, Hurd can position himself as the best of both political parties, he just has to find his presidential footing," she said.

Update 6/22/23, 3:12 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Sharon Navarro.